Lille 1-3 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy plays host to Lille versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lille have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.80 exceeds their overall 2.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Lille, 2.30 for Paris Saint Germain — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Paris Saint Germain, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–3 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 50% versus Paris Saint Germain 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 44% | Paris Saint Germain 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.40 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.131 / defence 0.853 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.415 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.399. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.415 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Lille games / 36 Paris Saint Germain games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lille 31% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 43%. Fair-value odds: Lille 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Paris Saint Germain 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Lille 50% | Paris Saint Germain 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 31% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Lille 1.40 / Paris Saint Germain 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.131 / def 0.853 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.415 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Paris Saint Germain xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Lille 1 - 3 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Lille vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 31% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lille and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (6 meetings): Lille 0W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 5W.
What form are Lille and Paris Saint Germain in?
Lille (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.13x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.42x) against Lille's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
31%
3.27
26%
3.81
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Lille xG
Total xG
3.09
1.69
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
6%
17.68
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Lille and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Lille and 1.69 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lille come into this having played 36 games, going 18W 11D 7L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.28 PPG from 36 outings (24W 10D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Lille — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lille's home form reads 12W 4D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.56 points per game from 18 outings (14W 4D 0L).
Attack vs Defence
Lille are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.53 scored and 0.94 conceded. Paris Saint Germain's attacking output running into Lille's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 64%.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Paris Saint Germain in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 18W 11D 7L in their last 36 games (1.81 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 24W 10D 2L in their last 36 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.22 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.56 PPG.
Have Lille or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-7 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lille
2
Draws
8
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Paris Saint Germain?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 44%, Paris Saint Germain 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lille) and 50% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Lille's recent matches and 56% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lille's recent games and 50% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lille.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Lille 1-3 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.40 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.69 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.13 / defence 0.85 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.42 / defence 0.80, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lille 31% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 43%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 44%, Paris Saint Germain 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.