Le Havre 1-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Le Havre at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Le Havre face Saint Etienne.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Le Havre and Saint Etienne meet at Stade Océane in Ligue 1 (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 March 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Le Havre have posted 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 home games — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Saint Etienne have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Saint Etienne's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Le Havre against 0.60 for Saint Etienne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Le Havre edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Le Havre 2–0 Saint Etienne — a Le Havre win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 48% versus Saint Etienne 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 53% | Saint Etienne 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.67 xG and Saint Etienne 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.664 / defence 1.460 | Saint Etienne attack 0.759 / defence 1.635. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.397. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.664 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.67. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 1.635 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Le Havre's projected output up. Saint Etienne's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.55. Le Havre's defence rating of 1.460 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Saint Etienne's projected output up. Data: built from Le Havre's last 58 games and Saint Etienne's last 24.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 35%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.48 | Draw 4.06 | Saint Etienne 2.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Le Havre's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Le Havre 30% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Le Havre 1.67 / Saint Etienne 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.664 / def 1.460 | Saint Etienne attack 0.759 / def 1.635 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Saint Etienne xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Le Havre vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Le Havre 1 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Le Havre vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Saint Etienne part of?
Le Havre vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 40% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Le Havre and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Le Havre vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.66) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (1.64), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.76x) against Le Havre's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 58 games and Saint Etienne's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
40%
2.48
25%
4.06
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Le Havre xG
Total xG
3.22
1.55
Saint Etienne xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.55 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 13W 13D 32L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Saint Etienne's form line: 23W 11D 24L from 58 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 0.93 PPG from their last 28 home games (8W 2D 18L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 6D 15L from their last 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Saint Etienne's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.22 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 13W 13D 32L in their last 58 games (0.90 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 23W 11D 24L in their last 58 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.93 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Le Havre won Saint Etienne 0-6 Le Havre on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Le Havre
2
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Saint Etienne?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2025: Le Havre 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Saint Etienne?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 39%, Saint Etienne 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Le Havre) and 54% (Saint Etienne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 32%; Le Havre have failed to score in 50% of games; Saint Etienne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Saint Etienne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Le Havre's recent matches and 39% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Le Havre's matches and 54% of Saint Etienne's.
Do Le Havre and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Le Havre's recent matches and 75% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre and Saint Etienne finished level at 1-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.67 xG and Saint Etienne 1.55 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.66 / defence 1.46 against Saint Etienne attack 0.76 / defence 1.64, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 40% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 35%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 53%, Saint Etienne 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 1 fixtures — matchday 25
All Ligue 1 fixtures →
More French football predictions →