Le Havre 0-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lille make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade Océane — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lille have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lille are 0.50 PPG clear of Le Havre in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Le Havre, 3 for Lille and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Le Havre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lille — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 60% versus Lille 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 57% | Lille 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.52 xG and Lille 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.916 / defence 1.039 | Lille attack 1.066 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.222. Data: 47 Le Havre games / 47 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 41% | Draw 25% | Lille 34%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Lille 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lille (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 90% | Lille 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 41% | Draw 25% | Lille 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Le Havre 1.52 / Lille 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.916 / def 1.039 | Lille attack 1.066 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Lille xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Lille kick off?
Le Havre vs Lille kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Lille?
Le Havre 0 - 1 Lille.
Where is Le Havre vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lille part of?
Le Havre vs Lille is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 41% chance of winning, Lille a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Le Havre and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lille?
Record (4 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 0 | Lille 3W.
What form are Le Havre and Lille in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Lille (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Lille's attack (1.07x) against Le Havre's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
41%
2.43
25%
4.03
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.87
1.35
Lille xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.35 for Lille, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 13W 9D 25L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille's form line: 24W 11D 12L from 47 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lille are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 0.87 PPG from 23 outings (5W 5D 13L).
On the road, Lille have gone 8W 6D 9L from 23 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.68 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Lille in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 13W 9D 25L in their last 47 games (1.02 PPG), while Lille have gone 24W 11D 12L in their last 47 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.87 PPG; Lille away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 3-0 on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
1
Draws
4
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Lille have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lille 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 65%, Lille 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Le Havre) and 44% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 35%; Le Havre have failed to score in 26% of games; Lille in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Le Havre's recent matches and 39% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Le Havre's recent games and 44% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Lille tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lille in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lille defy the odds to beat Le Havre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.52 xG and Lille 1.35 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Lille attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 41% | Draw 25% | Lille 34%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 57%, Lille 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lille's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.