Le Havre 2-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's home record at Stade Océane: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 40% versus Clermont Foot 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 30% | Clermont Foot 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.53 xG and Clermont Foot 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.978 / defence 1.047 | Clermont Foot attack 0.996 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.257. Data: 5 Le Havre games / 43 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 42% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 32%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Clermont Foot 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 30% | Clermont Foot 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 42% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Le Havre 1.53 / Clermont Foot 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.978 / def 1.047 | Clermont Foot attack 0.996 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Clermont Foot xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Le Havre vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Clermont Foot?
Le Havre 2 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Le Havre vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Clermont Foot part of?
Le Havre vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 42% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Le Havre and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Clermont Foot in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.98) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.00x) against Le Havre's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.77
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.84
1.31
Clermont Foot xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.31 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 21W 18D 4L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot's form line: 17W 9D 17L from 43 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Le Havre are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (12W 7D 2L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 8W 6D 7L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.14 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 21W 18D 4L in their last 43 games (1.88 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 17W 9D 17L in their last 43 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Clermont Foot away?
Le Havre's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 2.05 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Le Havre
0
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Clermont Foot?
From 2 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2024, when Clermont Foot 2-1 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 33%, Clermont Foot 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Le Havre) and 48% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Le Havre's recent matches and 62% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Le Havre's recent games and 48% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Clermont Foot 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Clermont Foot 2-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.53 xG and Clermont Foot 1.31 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Clermont Foot attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 42% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 32%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 30%, Clermont Foot 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.