Estac Troyes 0-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Estac Troyes's home record at Stade de l'Aube: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Clermont Foot's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Estac Troyes carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 1 for Clermont Foot and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 56% versus Clermont Foot 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 38% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.26 xG and Clermont Foot 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.738 / defence 0.909 | Clermont Foot attack 0.731 / defence 1.461. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.188. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.461 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Estac Troyes games / 32 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 46% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 22%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Clermont Foot 4.55. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 40% | Clermont Foot 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 46% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Estac Troyes 1.26 / Clermont Foot 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.738 / def 0.909 | Clermont Foot attack 0.731 / def 1.461 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Clermont Foot xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Estac Troyes 0 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot part of?
Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 46% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
46%
2.18
32%
3.11
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.05
0.79
Clermont Foot xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.79 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 8W 9D 15L from 32 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 17L across 32 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.03 PPG, Clermont Foot on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 4W 7D 5L from 16 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.00 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 8W 9D 15L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 7W 8D 17L in their last 32 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Clermont Foot away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.19 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
4
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot?
From 8 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 56%, Clermont Foot 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Estac Troyes) and 50% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 38% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Estac Troyes 0-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.26 xG and Clermont Foot 0.79 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.74 / defence 0.91 against Clermont Foot attack 0.73 / defence 1.46, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 46% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 22%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Clermont Foot win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 38%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.03 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.