Clermont Foot 1-3 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Clermont Foot welcome Stade Brestois 29 to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot at Stade Gabriel Montpied this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Clermont Foot have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 1 for Stade Brestois 29 and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 51% versus Stade Brestois 29 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 51% | Stade Brestois 29 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.58 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.909 / defence 1.121 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.940 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.439. Stade Brestois 29 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Clermont Foot games / 49 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 25% | Stade Brestois 29 36%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Stade Brestois 29 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Stade Brestois 29 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 25% | Stade Brestois 29 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Clermont Foot 1.58 / Stade Brestois 29 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.909 / def 1.121 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.940 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Stade Brestois 29 xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Clermont Foot 1 - 3 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 39% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (2 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 1 | Stade Brestois 29 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.91x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
39%
2.58
25%
3.97
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.09
1.52
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
8%
11.78
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.52 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 14W 11D 24L from 49 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 23L across 49 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.08 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 7W 6D 11L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 7W 5D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.22 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 14W 11D 24L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.12 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
4
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Clermont Foot at 62%, Stade Brestois 29 at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Clermont Foot) and 54% (Stade Brestois 29). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Clermont Foot's games and 75% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Clermont Foot's matches and 54% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Clermont Foot 1-3 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.58 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.52 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 25% | Stade Brestois 29 36%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Stade Brestois 29 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 51%, Stade Brestois 29 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.08 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.