Bordeaux 1-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nantes at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Bordeaux welcome Nantes to Stade Matmut-Atlantique. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 1W 4D 4L from 9 Ligue 1 matches — 0.78 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 2.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.22 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 games at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nantes — All Games: 4W 1D 4L from 9 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.44 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Nantes's 1.44 PPG return is 0.66 points per game ahead of Bordeaux's 0.78 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Bordeaux in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nantes in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 67% versus Nantes 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 67% | Nantes 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.21 xG and Nantes 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.828 / defence 1.324 | Nantes attack 1.002 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.227. Data: 9 Bordeaux games / 9 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 25% | Draw 31% | Nantes 44%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Nantes 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 75% | Nantes 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 25% | Draw 31% | Nantes 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Bordeaux 1.21 / Nantes 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.828 / def 1.324 | Nantes attack 1.002 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Nantes (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Nantes xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Nantes kick off?
Bordeaux vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Nantes?
Bordeaux 1 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Bordeaux vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Nantes part of?
Bordeaux vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 25% chance of winning, Nantes a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bordeaux and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Nantes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Nantes in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 2.22 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Nantes (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.11 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 0.83x the league average against Nantes's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
25%
4.02
31%
3.18
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.83
1.63
Nantes xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
5%
20.49
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.63 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 1W 4D 4L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantes's form line: 4W 1D 4L from 9 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nantes are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bordeaux.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nantes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bordeaux are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.44 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Nantes in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Nantes have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Nantes away?
Nantes's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.50 PPG; Nantes away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bordeaux and Nantes runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bordeaux
1
Draws
1
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Nantes?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 0, Nantes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2022, when Nantes 5-3 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bordeaux see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bordeaux at 75%, Nantes at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Bordeaux) and 50% (Nantes).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Bordeaux's games and 75% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Bordeaux's recent games and 50% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bordeaux and Nantes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 10, as Bordeaux and Nantes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.21 xG and Nantes 1.63 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.83 / defence 1.32 against Nantes attack 1.00 / defence 1.20, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 25% | Draw 31% | Nantes 44%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 67%, Nantes 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Nantes's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nantes arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.