Bordeaux 0-1 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Marseille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Marseille travel to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to take on Bordeaux. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 January 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bordeaux — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's home record at Stade Matmut-Atlantique: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Marseille stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Marseille have posted 5W 2D 1L from 8 away outings — 2.12 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 8 games (62%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Marseille are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bordeaux, 0 for Marseille and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Marseille in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bordeaux 89% and Marseille 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 78% | Marseille 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 0.98 xG and Marseille 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.078 / defence 1.524 | Marseille attack 0.835 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.291. Marseille's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 19 Bordeaux games / 18 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 21% | Draw 28% | Marseille 51%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Marseille 1.96. Marseille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Marseille at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Marseille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 90% | Marseille 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jan 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 21% | Draw 28% | Marseille 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Bordeaux 0.98 / Marseille 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.078 / def 1.524 | Marseille attack 0.835 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Marseille (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Marseille xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Marseille kick off?
Bordeaux vs Marseille kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 7 January 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Marseille?
Bordeaux 0 - 1 Marseille.
Where is Bordeaux vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Marseille part of?
Bordeaux vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 21% chance of winning, Marseille a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bordeaux and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Marseille?
Record (1 meetings): Bordeaux 0W | Draws 1 | Marseille 0W.
What form are Bordeaux and Marseille in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Marseille (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bordeaux's attack rating (1.08) and Marseille's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
21%
4.78
28%
3.62
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.62
1.64
Marseille xG
4.78
21%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
4%
24.73
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.64 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bordeaux's recent record stands at 3W 8D 7L from 18 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Marseille, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 3L across 18 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Marseille by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bordeaux heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bordeaux have managed 1W 3D 4L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Marseille's away record stands at 5W 2D 1L across 8 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.28 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.44 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games.
Defensively: Marseille in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Marseille in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 3W 8D 7L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Marseille have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.75 PPG; Marseille away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Marseille in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bordeaux
1
Draws
1
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Marseille?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 0, Marseille have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 7 January 2022, when Bordeaux 0-1 Marseille.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 100%, Marseille 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Bordeaux) and 12% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Marseille in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Marseille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Bordeaux's games and 25% of Marseille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Bordeaux's recent games and 12% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Marseille tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Marseille in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Bordeaux 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Bordeaux 0-1 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 0.98 xG and Marseille 1.64 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bordeaux fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.08 / defence 1.52 against Marseille attack 0.83 / defence 0.78, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 21% | Draw 28% | Marseille 51%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 78%, Marseille 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did not.
Marseille's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.