Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29 away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Stade Brestois 29 are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Auxerre lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Stade Brestois 29 half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 47% versus Stade Brestois 29 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Stade Brestois 29 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.98 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.645 / defence 0.977 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.882 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.177. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Auxerre games / 60 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 34% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 35%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Stade Brestois 29 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 30% | Stade Brestois 29 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 34% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Auxerre 0.98 / Stade Brestois 29 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.645 / def 0.977 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.882 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Stade Brestois 29 xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Auxerre 3 - 0 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 34% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (5 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 2 | Stade Brestois 29 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Auxerre (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.65) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (0.88x) against Auxerre's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
34%
2.96
31%
3.24
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.00
1.01
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.01 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 15W 16D 29L from 60 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 24L across 60 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stade Brestois 29 by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 10W 9D 11L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 8W 5D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stade Brestois 29's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.43 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 25W 11D 24L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Auxerre's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.30 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
2
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 40%, Stade Brestois 29 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 63% (Stade Brestois 29). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 37% of games; Stade Brestois 29 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Stade Brestois 29?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Auxerre's recent matches and 57% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Auxerre's matches and 63% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stade Brestois 29.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Stade Brestois 29 3-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.98 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.01 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stade Brestois 29 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.65 / defence 0.98 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.88 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 34% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 35%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Stade Brestois 29 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.