Auxerre 1-2 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 36 as Auxerre welcome Paris Saint Germain to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris Saint Germain's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Paris Saint Germain's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Auxerre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 0–5 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 59% versus Paris Saint Germain 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 48% | Paris Saint Germain 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.85 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.746 / defence 1.022 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.406 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.253. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.406 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Auxerre games / 73 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 16% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 59%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Paris Saint Germain 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 50% | Paris Saint Germain 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 16% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Auxerre 0.85 / Paris Saint Germain 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.746 / def 1.022 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.406 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Paris Saint Germain xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Auxerre 1 - 2 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 16% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 0 | Paris Saint Germain 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain in?
Auxerre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
16%
6.08
25%
4.04
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.65
1.80
Paris Saint Germain xG
6.08
16%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
17%
6.06
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
3%
36.79
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.7 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.80 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 73 games, going 27W 23D 23L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.29 PPG from 73 outings (52W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 15W 12D 9L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.08 points per game from 36 outings (23W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.38 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 27W 23D 23L in their last 73 games (1.42 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 52W 11D 10L in their last 73 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.58 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Paris Saint Germain have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Auxerre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 58%, Paris Saint Germain 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Auxerre) and 69% (Paris Saint Germain). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Auxerre's games and 56% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Auxerre's matches and 69% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Auxerre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Auxerre 1-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.85 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.80 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.75 / defence 1.02 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.41 / defence 0.81, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 16% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 59%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 48%, Paris Saint Germain 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.