Auxerre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Auxerre face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Auxerre welcome Paris Saint Germain to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1 (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Auxerre stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Auxerre at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Auxerre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Paris Saint Germain — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Paris Saint Germain's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Paris Saint Germain's 2.50 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Paris Saint Germain have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Auxerre.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Auxerre 0–2 Paris Saint Germain — a Paris Saint Germain win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 50% versus Paris Saint Germain 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 54% | Paris Saint Germain 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Auxerre surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Paris Saint Germain have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 71% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.27 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.895 / defence 1.044 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.264 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.242. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack rating of 1.264, which lifts their away xG to 1.64. Data: built from Auxerre's last 52 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 52.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 30% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 46%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.38 | Draw 4.12 | Paris Saint Germain 2.17. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Paris Saint Germain's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 50% (last 10 home games) | Paris Saint Germain 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 30% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Auxerre 1.27 / Paris Saint Germain 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.895 / def 1.044 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.264 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Paris Saint Germain xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 23 January 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Auxerre 0 - 1 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 30% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 52 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
30%
3.38
24%
4.12
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.91
1.64
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.38
30%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
6%
17.39
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.64 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 52 games, going 14W 12D 26L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.42 PPG from 52 outings (39W 9D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.38 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 10W 7D 9L across their last 26 home games, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.19 points per game from their last 26 away games (17W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.54 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 65%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 14W 12D 26L in their last 52 games (1.04 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 39W 9D 4L in their last 52 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.42 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 23 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Paris Saint Germain have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Nov 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Auxerre.
Auxerre's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 January 2026: Auxerre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 46%, Paris Saint Germain 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Auxerre) and 62% (Paris Saint Germain). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Auxerre's games and 73% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Auxerre's matches and 62% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Auxerre's recent matches and 73% of Paris Saint Germain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Auxerre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Auxerre 0-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.27 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.64 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.26 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 30% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 46%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Paris Saint Germain 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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