Auxerre 1-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Ajaccio meet at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Auxerre (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Ajaccio have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Ajaccio have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Auxerre against 0.70 for Ajaccio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Ajaccio and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 66% versus Ajaccio 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Auxerre 54% | Ajaccio 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.06 xG and Ajaccio 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.736 / defence 1.092 | Ajaccio attack 0.782 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.478. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Auxerre games / 12 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 30% | Draw 30% | Ajaccio 40%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Ajaccio 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajaccio are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 60% | Ajaccio 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 30% | Draw 30% | Ajaccio 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Auxerre 1.06 / Ajaccio 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.736 / def 1.092 | Ajaccio attack 0.782 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Ajaccio xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Ajaccio kick off?
Auxerre vs Ajaccio kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Auxerre vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Ajaccio part of?
Auxerre vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 30% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Auxerre and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Ajaccio?
Record (2 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 2 | Ajaccio 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Ajaccio in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.74x the league average against Ajaccio's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.78x) against Auxerre's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
30%
3.31
30%
3.36
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.32
1.26
Ajaccio xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.26 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 21W 16D 13L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio's form line: 24W 11D 15L from 50 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Auxerre against 1.66 for Ajaccio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (11W 8D 6L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 11W 7D 7L from 25 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.94 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Ajaccio in 28%.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 21W 16D 13L in their last 50 games (1.58 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 24W 11D 15L in their last 50 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Ajaccio away?
Auxerre's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.64 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Auxerre have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Auxerre
2
Draws
0
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 4, Ajaccio have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Ajaccio 0-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Ajaccio?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 64%, Ajaccio 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Auxerre) and 20% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ajaccio in 52%; Ajaccio in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Auxerre's recent matches and 28% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Auxerre's recent games and 20% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Ajaccio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Ajaccio 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.06 xG and Ajaccio 1.26 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ajaccio landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.74 / defence 1.09 against Ajaccio attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 30% | Draw 30% | Ajaccio 40%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Ajaccio 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajaccio's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.58 PPG, Ajaccio 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.