Angers vs Toulouse – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 31 as Angers welcome Toulouse to Stade Raymond-Kopa. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Angers have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Toulouse — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Angers, 3 for Toulouse and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Angers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Angers in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 45% versus Toulouse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 35% | Toulouse 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.31 xG and Toulouse 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.884 / defence 1.311 | Toulouse attack 1.290 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.392. Toulouse have an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — the away xG of 2.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Angers games / 40 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 20% | Draw 19% | Toulouse 61%. Fair-value odds: Angers 5.00 | Draw 5.26 | Toulouse 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 2.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Angers 40% | Toulouse 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 20% | Draw 19% | Toulouse 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG Angers 1.31 / Toulouse 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.884 / def 1.311 | Toulouse attack 1.290 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Angers xG
Expected Goals
2.35
Toulouse xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Toulouse kick off?
Angers vs Toulouse is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
Where is Angers vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Toulouse part of?
Angers vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 20% chance of winning, Toulouse a 61% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Angers and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Toulouse?
Record (6 meetings): Angers 2W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 3W.
What form are Angers and Toulouse in?
Angers (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 2.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 1-3 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
20%
4.92
19%
5.23
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
1 – 3
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Angers xG
Total xG
3.67
2.35
Toulouse xG
4.92
20%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
9%
10.53
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
2%
51.78
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Angers and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Angers and 2.35 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Angers have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 10W 10D 20L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse's form line: 14W 11D 15L from 40 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.00 PPG, Toulouse on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 7W 5D 8L from 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.48 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 10W 10D 20L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.15 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Angers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Toulouse won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Toulouse?
From 6 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Toulouse have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Angers 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 45%, Toulouse 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Angers) and 65% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Angers have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Angers's recent matches and 60% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Angers's recent games and 65% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Toulouse tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.