Angers 1-2 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Angers host Nice at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Angers — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers have gone 3W 1D 1L this season (5 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Raymond-Kopa. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Angers are significantly better at Stade Raymond-Kopa than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice away from home this season: 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Nice — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Angers in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Nice in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 64% versus Nice 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 46% | Nice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.08 xG and Nice 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.026 / defence 1.215 | Nice attack 1.002 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.200. Data: 11 Angers games / 11 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 24% | Draw 34% | Nice 42%. Fair-value odds: Angers 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | Nice 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Angers 40% | Nice 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 24% | Draw 34% | Nice 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Angers 1.08 / Nice 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.026 / def 1.215 | Nice attack 1.002 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Nice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Nice xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Nice kick off?
Angers vs Nice kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Nice?
Angers 1 - 2 Nice.
Where is Angers vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Nice part of?
Angers vs Nice is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 24% chance of winning, Nice a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Angers and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Nice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Angers and Nice in?
Angers (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Nice (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Nice's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
24%
4.11
34%
2.97
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Angers xG
Total xG
2.54
1.46
Nice xG
4.11
24%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
6%
17.71
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Angers and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Angers and 1.46 for Nice, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Angers's recent record stands at 4W 5D 2L from 11 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 2L across 11 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.55 PPG, Nice on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Angers have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Angers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nice's away record stands at 3W 0D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.91 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Angers have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Angers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Nice in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Nice in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while Nice have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Nice away?
Angers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 2.00 PPG; Nice away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Angers or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Nice in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when Nice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Nice specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Nice?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Nice have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Angers 0-2 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Angers 40% BTTS, Nice 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Angers) and 40% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Nice in 60%; Nice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Angers's recent matches and 0% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Angers's recent games and 40% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Nice tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Nice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Angers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Angers 1-2 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.08 xG and Nice 1.46 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Nice attack 1.00 / defence 0.85, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 24% | Draw 34% | Nice 42%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 46%, Nice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Nice's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.55 PPG, Nice 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.