VPS 0-1 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VPS at 44%, yet in-form Gnistan provide a compelling counter-argument — this VPS vs Gnistan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VPS and Gnistan meet at Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 23 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
VPS (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS at Lemonsoft Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gnistan's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gnistan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gnistan away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gnistan are 0.90 PPG clear of VPS in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VPS register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Gnistan in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VPS lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Gnistan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
VPS — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Gnistan — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 76% and Gnistan 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VPS 69% | Gnistan 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.81 xG and Gnistan 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.070 / defence 1.219 | Gnistan attack 1.015 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.249. Data: 44 VPS games / 22 Gnistan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 44% | Draw 24% | Gnistan 33%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Gnistan 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VPS are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gnistan (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: VPS 90% | Gnistan 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 44% | Draw 24% | Gnistan 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG VPS 1.81 / Gnistan 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.070 / def 1.219 | Gnistan attack 1.015 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: VPS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Gnistan xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Gnistan kick off?
VPS vs Gnistan kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 23 October 2024 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Gnistan?
VPS 0 - 1 Gnistan.
Where is VPS vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Gnistan part of?
VPS vs Gnistan is a Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 44% chance of winning, Gnistan a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both VPS and Gnistan will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Gnistan?
Record (2 meetings): VPS 1W | Draws 0 | Gnistan 1W.
What form are VPS and Gnistan in?
VPS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Gnistan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about VPS vs Gnistan?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates VPS's attack at 1.07x the league average against Gnistan's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gnistan's attack (1.01x) against VPS's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
44%
2.29
24%
4.24
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
VPS xG
Total xG
3.35
1.54
Gnistan xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
9%
10.70
5%
18.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are VPS and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for VPS and 1.54 for Gnistan, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Gnistan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VPS's recent record stands at 13W 6D 10L from 29 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gnistan, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 11L across 29 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Gnistan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for VPS against 1.31 for Gnistan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, VPS have managed 6W 4D 4L from 14 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gnistan's away record stands at 3W 4D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VPS are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 1.38 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VPS have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Gnistan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Gnistan in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 13W 6D 10L in their last 29 games (1.55 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Gnistan away?
VPS's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.57 PPG; Gnistan away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gnistan won 3-0 on 4 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VPS have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gnistan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
VPS
4
Draws
2
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Gnistan?
From 7 meetings on record, VPS have won 1, Gnistan have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Gnistan last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Gnistan 1-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Gnistan?
Gnistan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for VPS, 71% for Gnistan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for VPS and 64% for Gnistan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Gnistan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of VPS's games and 71% of Gnistan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs Gnistan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of VPS's matches and 64% of Gnistan's.
Do VPS and Gnistan tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gnistan in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gnistan defy the odds to beat VPS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan beat VPS 0-1 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.81 xG and Gnistan 1.54 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VPS fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.07 / defence 1.22 against Gnistan attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 44% | Draw 24% | Gnistan 33%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Gnistan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 69%, Gnistan 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Gnistan's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.55 PPG, Gnistan 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gnistan win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Gnistan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.