SJK 3-1 Turku PS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Turku PS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 14 as SJK welcome Turku PS to OmaSp Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 July 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SJK — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK at OmaSp Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — SJK are significantly better at OmaSp Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Turku PS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Turku PS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Turku PS have posted 1W 3D 3L from 7 away outings — 0.86 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (SJK) versus 1.20 (Turku PS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SJK, 1 for Turku PS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Turku PS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SJK in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Turku PS in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 60% versus Turku PS 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 60% | Turku PS 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.14 xG and Turku PS 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.822 / defence 1.104 | Turku PS attack 0.658 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.223. Data: 35 SJK games / 13 Turku PS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 39% | Draw 35% | Turku PS 26%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Turku PS 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SJK at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SJK 60% | Turku PS 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Turku PS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: OmaSp Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 39% | Draw 35% | Turku PS 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG SJK 1.14 / Turku PS 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.822 / def 1.104 | Turku PS attack 0.658 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: SJK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Turku PS xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Turku PS kick off?
SJK vs Turku PS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 July 2026 at OmaSp Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Turku PS?
SJK 3 - 1 Turku PS.
Where is SJK vs Turku PS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSp Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Turku PS part of?
SJK vs Turku PS is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Turku PS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 39% chance of winning, Turku PS a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Turku PS?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SJK and Turku PS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Turku PS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Turku PS?
Record (1 meetings): SJK 0W | Draws 0 | Turku PS 1W.
What form are SJK and Turku PS in?
SJK (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Turku PS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SJK's attack rating (0.82) and Turku PS's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Turku PS's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
39%
2.56
35%
2.86
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
SJK xG
Total xG
2.03
0.89
Turku PS xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Turku PS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are SJK and Turku PS expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for SJK and 0.89 for Turku PS, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Turku PS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, SJK have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 6D 6L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Turku PS's form line: 7W 4D 4L from 15 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Turku PS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Turku PS are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SJK.
Venue Form
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
On the road, Turku PS have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Turku PS's season.
Goals in Recent Form
SJK are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Turku PS are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Turku PS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Turku PS in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 3W 6D 6L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Turku PS have gone 7W 4D 4L in their last 15 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Turku PS away?
SJK's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.14 PPG; Turku PS away: 0.86 PPG.
Have SJK or Turku PS been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Turku PS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SJK
0
Draws
1
Turku PS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Turku PS?
From 2 meetings on record, SJK have won 1, Turku PS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Turku PS last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when SJK 3-1 Turku PS.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Turku PS see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 57%, Turku PS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (SJK) and 43% (Turku PS).
On the defensive side: Turku PS in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Turku PS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Turku PS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SJK's games and 57% of Turku PS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Turku PS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of SJK's recent games and 43% of Turku PS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and Turku PS tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Turku PS in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Turku PS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Turku PS 3-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.14 xG and Turku PS 0.89 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against Turku PS attack 0.66 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 39% | Draw 35% | Turku PS 26%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 60%, Turku PS 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Turku PS's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Turku PS arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with SJK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Turku PS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.