SJK 2-3 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SJK face Kooteepee.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kooteepee travel to OmaSP Stadion to take on SJK in Veikkausliiga (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SJK stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SJK's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Kooteepee have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Kooteepee have posted 1W 2D 6L from their last 9 away outings — 0.56 PPG. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.56 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (SJK) versus 1.10 (Kooteepee). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, SJK have won 2, Kooteepee 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2023, ended SJK 2–0 Kooteepee — a SJK win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
SJK in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 50% versus Kooteepee 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SJK 44% | Kooteepee 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.47 xG and Kooteepee 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.985 / defence 1.018 | Kooteepee attack 0.645 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.135. Kooteepee's attack rating of 0.645 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from SJK's last 40 games and Kooteepee's last 18.
Result probabilities: SJK 53% | Draw 29% | Kooteepee 18%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.88 | Draw 3.40 | Kooteepee 5.71. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SJK's last 10 home games and Kooteepee's last 9 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SJK 50% (last 10 home games) | Kooteepee 33% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 19 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 53% | Draw 29% | Kooteepee 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG SJK 1.47 / Kooteepee 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.985 / def 1.018 | Kooteepee attack 0.645 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: SJK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Kooteepee xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SJK vs Kooteepee FAQs
What time does SJK vs Kooteepee kick off?
SJK vs Kooteepee kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Tuesday 15 August 2023 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Kooteepee?
SJK 2 - 3 Kooteepee.
Where is SJK vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Kooteepee part of?
SJK vs Kooteepee is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 19) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 53% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SJK and Kooteepee will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will SJK vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SJK's attack rating (0.98) and Kooteepee's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SJK's last 40 games and Kooteepee's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
53%
1.88
29%
3.40
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
SJK xG
Total xG
2.22
0.75
Kooteepee xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
4%
24.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SJK vs Kooteepee Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SJK and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for SJK and 0.75 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SJK's recent record stands at 10W 5D 3L from 18 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Kooteepee, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 9L across 18 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SJK by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kooteepee heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SJK have managed 6W 1D 2L from their last 9 home games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kooteepee's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across their last 9 away games, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SJK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.78 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: SJK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Kooteepee in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
SJK (Home) vs Kooteepee (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SJK
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ SJK vs Kooteepee Form FAQs
What form are SJK and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 games (1.94 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Kooteepee away?
SJK's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 2.11 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.56 PPG.
Have SJK or Kooteepee been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Kooteepee in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2021. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 3 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SJK have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Aug 2025, when SJK won SJK 3-0 Kooteepee.
SJK's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SJK
1
Draws
1
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ SJK vs Kooteepee H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Kooteepee?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SJK have won 4, Kooteepee have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SJK and Kooteepee last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 August 2025: SJK 3-0 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Kooteepee?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 56%, Kooteepee 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SJK) and 33% (Kooteepee).
On the defensive side: SJK keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kooteepee in 33%; Kooteepee in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SJK vs Kooteepee Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SJK and Kooteepee matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of SJK's recent matches and 33% of Kooteepee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SJK and Kooteepee matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of SJK's recent games and 33% of Kooteepee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and Kooteepee matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of SJK's recent matches and 67% of Kooteepee's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kooteepee defy the odds to beat SJK 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kooteepee beat SJK 2-3 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.47 xG and Kooteepee 0.75 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kooteepee outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Kooteepee attack 0.65 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 53% | Draw 29% | Kooteepee 18%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Kooteepee win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 44%, Kooteepee 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Kooteepee's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Kooteepee winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SJK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.