SJK 3-2 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SJK at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs AC Oulu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OmaSP Stadion plays host to SJK versus AC Oulu in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 24 July 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SJK have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OmaSP Stadion, SJK have gone 2W 2D 2L this season (6 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
AC Oulu's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu's away record: 1W 0D 4L from 5 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. SJK's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of AC Oulu's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
AC Oulu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 25% versus AC Oulu 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SJK 17% | AC Oulu 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.29 xG and AC Oulu 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.003 / defence 0.980 | AC Oulu attack 0.769 / defence 1.551. League average goals — home 0.827 / away 1.155. AC Oulu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.551 — this is suppressing SJK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 SJK games / 12 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 46% | Draw 29% | AC Oulu 25%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | AC Oulu 4.00. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: SJK 33% | AC Oulu 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 46% | Draw 29% | AC Oulu 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG SJK 1.29 / AC Oulu 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.003 / def 0.980 | AC Oulu attack 0.769 / def 1.551 | league avg home 0.827 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: SJK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.87
AC Oulu xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs AC Oulu kick off?
SJK vs AC Oulu kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs AC Oulu?
SJK 3 - 2 AC Oulu.
Where is SJK vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs AC Oulu part of?
SJK vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 46% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SJK and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and AC Oulu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and AC Oulu in?
SJK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.00x the league average against AC Oulu's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (0.77x) against SJK's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.49
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
SJK xG
Total xG
2.16
0.87
AC Oulu xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SJK and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for SJK and 0.87 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, SJK have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 6W 2D 4L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu's form line: 2W 1D 9L from 12 games, 0.58 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AC Oulu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, AC Oulu have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SJK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 0.75 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: SJK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 9L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or AC Oulu away?
SJK's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.40 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.60 PPG.
Have SJK or AC Oulu been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, AC Oulu in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-3 on 29 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SJK
2
Draws
3
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 5, AC Oulu have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SJK 0-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between SJK and AC Oulu?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SJK see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 20%, AC Oulu 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (SJK) and 60% (AC Oulu).
On the defensive side: SJK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; SJK have failed to score in 40% of games; AC Oulu in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play AC Oulu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of SJK's recent matches and 60% of AC Oulu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SJK vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of SJK's recent games and 60% of AC Oulu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and AC Oulu tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out AC Oulu 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat AC Oulu 3-2 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.29 xG and AC Oulu 0.87 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AC Oulu outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against AC Oulu attack 0.77 / defence 1.55, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 46% | Draw 29% | AC Oulu 25%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 17%, AC Oulu 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Oulu's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.