SJK 2-1 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SJK face AC Oulu.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OmaSP Stadion plays host to SJK versus AC Oulu in Veikkausliiga (matchday 1). Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SJK have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SJK have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AC Oulu's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AC Oulu's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from SJK's last 10 home games and AC Oulu's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of SJK's games and 70% of AC Oulu's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, AC Oulu edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2023, ended SJK 2–2 AC Oulu — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
AC Oulu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 54% versus AC Oulu 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 48% | AC Oulu 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SJK surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while AC Oulu have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.51 xG and AC Oulu 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.021 / defence 1.025 | AC Oulu attack 1.013 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.213. Data: built from SJK's last 22 games and AC Oulu's last 22. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SJK 43% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 31%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.34 | Draw 3.87 | AC Oulu 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SJK's last 10 home games and AC Oulu's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SJK 80% (last 10 home games) | AC Oulu 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (SJK 22 games, AC Oulu 22) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 1 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 43% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG SJK 1.51 / AC Oulu 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.021 / def 1.025 | AC Oulu attack 1.013 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: SJK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.26
AC Oulu xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SJK vs AC Oulu FAQs
What time does SJK vs AC Oulu kick off?
SJK vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs AC Oulu?
SJK 2 - 1 AC Oulu.
Where is SJK vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs AC Oulu part of?
SJK vs AC Oulu is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 1) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 43% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SJK and AC Oulu will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SJK vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.02x the league average against AC Oulu's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (1.01x) against SJK's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from SJK's last 22 games and AC Oulu's last 22, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.87
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
SJK xG
Total xG
2.77
1.26
AC Oulu xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SJK vs AC Oulu Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SJK and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for SJK and 1.26 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, SJK have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 22W 12D 22L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
AC Oulu's form line: 24W 11D 21L from 56 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for SJK against 1.48 for AC Oulu. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 6D 8L).
On the road, AC Oulu have gone 11W 4D 12L from their last 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SJK are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.57 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu in 62%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
AC Oulu
Current Season
SJK (Home) vs AC Oulu (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SJK
Current Season
AC Oulu
Current Season
❓ SJK vs AC Oulu Form FAQs
What form are SJK and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 24W 11D 21L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or AC Oulu away?
SJK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.67 PPG; AC Oulu away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won AC Oulu 0-3 SJK on 29 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 2W 1D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SJK
3
Draws
3
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ SJK vs AC Oulu H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and AC Oulu?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SJK have won 4, AC Oulu have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SJK and AC Oulu last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: AC Oulu 0-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and AC Oulu?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for SJK, 70% for AC Oulu — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for SJK and 74% for AC Oulu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SJK vs AC Oulu Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SJK and AC Oulu matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SJK's games and 70% of AC Oulu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SJK and AC Oulu matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SJK's matches and 74% of AC Oulu's.
Do SJK and AC Oulu matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of SJK's recent matches and 89% of AC Oulu's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out AC Oulu 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat AC Oulu 2-1 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.51 xG and AC Oulu 1.26 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against AC Oulu attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 43% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 31%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 48%, AC Oulu 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
AC Oulu's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.39 PPG, AC Oulu 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.