Mariehamn 2-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 39%, yet in-form KuPS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mariehamn vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KuPS make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Mariehamn (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
KuPS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. KuPS are 1.00 PPG clear of Mariehamn in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mariehamn lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2023, ended 1–0 with Mariehamn winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
KuPS — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 59% versus KuPS 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 52% | KuPS 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.84 xG and KuPS 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 1.034 / defence 1.084 | KuPS attack 1.022 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.882 / away 1.568. Data: 23 Mariehamn games / 23 KuPS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 39% | Draw 27% | KuPS 34%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | KuPS 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 69% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KuPS (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. This conflicts with form data: Mariehamn 30% | KuPS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 39% | Draw 27% | KuPS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 72% | xG Mariehamn 1.84 / KuPS 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 1.034 / def 1.084 | KuPS attack 1.022 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.882 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.74
KuPS xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs KuPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Mariehamn 2 - 2 KuPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs KuPS part of?
Mariehamn vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 39% chance of winning, KuPS a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Mariehamn and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and KuPS?
Record (5 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 1 | KuPS 3W.
What form are Mariehamn and KuPS in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. KuPS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 1.03x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.02x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
The sample (23/23 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
39%
2.60
27%
3.66
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.58
1.74
KuPS xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
18%
5.68
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
7%
14.75
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.74 for KuPS, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 15W 13D 26L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
KuPS's form line: 33W 11D 10L from 54 games, 2.04 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.19 PPG from 26 outings (8W 7D 11L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 15W 6D 5L from 26 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.56 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and KuPS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while KuPS have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.19 PPG; KuPS away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, KuPS in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
3
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 2, KuPS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 58%, KuPS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mariehamn) and 42% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 46%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 46% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mariehamn's recent games and 42% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and KuPS tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, KuPS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn and KuPS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn and KuPS finished level at 2-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.84 xG and KuPS 1.74 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against KuPS attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 39% | Draw 27% | KuPS 34%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 52%, KuPS 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KuPS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.