Mariehamn 0-2 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Inter Turku at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs Inter Turku encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mariehamn host Inter Turku at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 July 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn at Wiklöf Holding Arena this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Inter Turku have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inter Turku have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter Turku — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Inter Turku in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 25% versus Inter Turku 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 50% | Inter Turku 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.77 xG and Inter Turku 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.695 / defence 1.279 | Inter Turku attack 1.006 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 0.854 / away 1.161. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Inter Turku bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Mariehamn games / 12 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 19% | Draw 26% | Inter Turku 54%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Inter Turku 1.85. Inter Turku hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter Turku at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter Turku offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mariehamn 17% | Inter Turku 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 19% | Draw 26% | Inter Turku 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Mariehamn 0.77 / Inter Turku 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.695 / def 1.279 | Inter Turku attack 1.006 / def 1.304 | league avg home 0.854 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Inter Turku (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Inter Turku xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Inter Turku kick off?
Mariehamn vs Inter Turku kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Mariehamn 0 - 2 Inter Turku.
Where is Mariehamn vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Inter Turku part of?
Mariehamn vs Inter Turku is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 19% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Inter Turku the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Mariehamn and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Inter Turku?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and Inter Turku in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Inter Turku (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.69) and Inter Turku's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter Turku's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Turku Win
19%
5.15
26%
3.81
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.27
1.49
Inter Turku xG
5.15
19%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
4%
22.94
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 15.5 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.49 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 3W 2D 7L from 12 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter Turku, meanwhile, have gone 7W 1D 4L across 12 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter Turku by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mariehamn have managed 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — 0.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.92 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Inter Turku's away record stands at 2W 0D 3L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Inter Turku's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter Turku come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.58 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Inter Turku
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 7W 1D 4L in their last 12 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Inter Turku away?
Inter Turku's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 0.20 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Inter Turku runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Inter Turku go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Inter Turku won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Inter Turku specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
3
Draws
6
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, Inter Turku have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Inter Turku?
Inter Turku have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 0%, Inter Turku 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Mariehamn and 80% for Inter Turku. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Inter Turku?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 80% of Inter Turku's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Mariehamn's matches and 80% of Inter Turku's.
Do Mariehamn and Inter Turku tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter Turku cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter Turku beat Mariehamn 0-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.77 xG and Inter Turku 1.49 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.69 / defence 1.28 against Inter Turku attack 1.01 / defence 1.30, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 19% | Draw 26% | Inter Turku 54%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, Inter Turku 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter Turku's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter Turku arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Inter Turku (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.