Mariehamn 1-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mariehamn have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 3W 2D 5L at Wiklöf Holding Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ilves are 0.50 PPG clear of Mariehamn in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Ilves, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with Ilves winning.
It is worth noting that Ilves have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 52% versus Ilves 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 50% | Ilves 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.51 xG and Ilves 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.827 / defence 1.115 | Ilves attack 1.140 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.167. Ilves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Mariehamn games / 44 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 38% | Draw 24% | Ilves 37%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Ilves 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ilves (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mariehamn 20% | Ilves 70%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group - 26 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 38% | Draw 24% | Ilves 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Mariehamn 1.51 / Ilves 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.827 / def 1.115 | Ilves attack 1.140 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Ilves xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Ilves kick off?
Mariehamn vs Ilves kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Mariehamn 1 - 1 Ilves.
Where is Mariehamn vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Ilves part of?
Mariehamn vs Ilves is a Relegation Group - 26 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 38% chance of winning, Ilves a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mariehamn and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
Record (9 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 3 | Ilves 5W.
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Ilves (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.83x the league average against Ilves's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (1.14x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
38%
2.60
24%
4.11
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.99
1.48
Ilves xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.48 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mariehamn come into this having played 52 games, going 12W 13D 27L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.63 PPG from 52 outings (25W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Mariehamn's home form reads 8W 7D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (9W 5D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mariehamn are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.88 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 12W 13D 27L in their last 52 games (0.94 PPG), while Ilves have gone 25W 10D 17L in their last 52 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Ilves away?
Ilves's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.24 PPG; Ilves away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Ilves in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
4
Draws
5
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, Ilves have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 48%, Ilves 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Mariehamn and 76% for Ilves. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Ilves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Mariehamn's games and 64% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mariehamn vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Mariehamn's matches and 76% of Ilves's.
Do Mariehamn and Ilves tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ilves in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn and Ilves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Relegation Group - 26, as Mariehamn and Ilves drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.51 xG and Ilves 1.48 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.83 / defence 1.11 against Ilves attack 1.14 / defence 1.33, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 38% | Draw 24% | Ilves 37%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, Ilves 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Ilves's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.