Mariehamn vs Ilves – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs Ilves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mariehamn have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 2W 3D 5L at — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Mariehamn against 1.00 for Ilves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Ilves, who have claimed 5 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with Ilves winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ilves have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 51% versus Ilves 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 49% | Ilves 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.51 xG and Ilves 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.795 / defence 1.142 | Ilves attack 1.165 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.167. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ilves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Mariehamn games / 44 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 37% | Draw 24% | Ilves 39%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Ilves 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 30% | Ilves 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 37% | Draw 24% | Ilves 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Mariehamn 1.51 / Ilves 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.795 / def 1.142 | Ilves attack 1.165 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Ilves (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Ilves xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Ilves kick off?
Mariehamn vs Ilves is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Ilves part of?
Mariehamn vs Ilves is a Relegation Group - 26 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 37% chance of winning, Ilves a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Mariehamn and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
Record (10 meetings): Mariehamn 2W | Draws 3 | Ilves 5W.
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Ilves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.80x the league average against Ilves's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (1.17x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
37%
2.69
24%
4.17
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.07
1.55
Ilves xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
8%
12.73
9%
11.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.55 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mariehamn come into this having played 49 games, going 11W 13D 25L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.55 PPG from 49 outings (22W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Mariehamn's home form reads 7W 7D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.21 points per game from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mariehamn are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.84 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 11W 13D 25L in their last 49 games (0.94 PPG), while Ilves have gone 22W 10D 17L in their last 49 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Ilves away?
Ilves's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.17 PPG; Ilves away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
3
Draws
5
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 2, Ilves have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Ilves 2-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 50%, Ilves 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Mariehamn and 75% for Ilves. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Ilves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Mariehamn's games and 67% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mariehamn vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Mariehamn's matches and 75% of Ilves's.
Do Mariehamn and Ilves tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Ilves in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.