Mariehamn 2-2 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs Ilves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to Wiklof Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mariehamn have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 4W 2D 4L at Wiklof Holding Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Ilves have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Mariehamn against 1.50 for Ilves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Mariehamn, 4 for Ilves and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Ilves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 57% versus Ilves 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 59% | Ilves 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.26 xG and Ilves 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.989 / defence 1.043 | Ilves attack 1.050 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.186. Data: 24 Mariehamn games / 24 Ilves games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 36% | Draw 27% | Ilves 37%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Ilves 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 50% | Ilves 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Wiklof Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 36% | Draw 27% | Ilves 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Mariehamn 1.26 / Ilves 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.989 / def 1.043 | Ilves attack 1.050 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Ilves (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Ilves xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Ilves kick off?
Mariehamn vs Ilves kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Mariehamn 2 - 2 Ilves.
Where is Mariehamn vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Ilves part of?
Mariehamn vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 36% chance of winning, Ilves a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mariehamn and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
Record (8 meetings): Mariehamn 2W | Draws 2 | Ilves 4W.
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Ilves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.99x the league average against Ilves's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (1.05x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.76
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.56
1.30
Ilves xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.30 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mariehamn come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 13D 26L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.98 PPG from 54 outings (32W 11D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Ilves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Mariehamn's home form reads 9W 7D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.67 points per game from 27 outings (13W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mariehamn are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 2.15 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Ilves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Ilves have gone 32W 11D 11L in their last 54 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Ilves away?
Ilves's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.26 PPG; Ilves away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Ilves in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
3
Draws
5
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 2, Ilves have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Ilves 2-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ilves see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 52%, Ilves 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Mariehamn) and 48% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 41%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 48% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Mariehamn's recent games and 48% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Ilves tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ilves in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn and Ilves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wiklof Holding Arena, Regular Season - 3, as Mariehamn and Ilves drew 2-2 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.26 xG and Ilves 1.30 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against Ilves attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 36% | Draw 27% | Ilves 37%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 59%, Ilves 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.