Mariehamn 0-3 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Mariehamn welcome Haka to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.56 xG and Haka 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 1.217 / defence 1.103 | Haka attack 0.705 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 0.951 / away 1.435. Haka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Mariehamn games / 3 Haka games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 46% | Draw 28% | Haka 26%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Haka 3.85. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mariehamn at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 46% | Draw 28% | Haka 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Mariehamn 1.56 / Haka 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 1.217 / def 1.103 | Haka attack 0.705 / def 1.351 | league avg home 0.951 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Haka xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Haka kick off?
Mariehamn vs Haka kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Mariehamn 0 - 3 Haka.
Where is Mariehamn vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Haka part of?
Mariehamn vs Haka is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 46% chance of winning, Haka a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mariehamn and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mariehamn's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.60
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.68
1.11
Haka xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.11 for Haka, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Pre-Season
Haka
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Haka runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Haka won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mariehamn
3
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 4, Haka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Mariehamn 1-1 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Haka?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Haka run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Mariehamn 0-3 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.56 xG and Haka 1.11 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Haka outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 1.22 / defence 1.10 against Haka attack 0.70 / defence 1.35, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 46% | Draw 28% | Haka 26%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Haka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.