Mariehamn 2-0 FF Jaro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs FF Jaro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FF Jaro make the trip to Wiklof Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Monday 31 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Mariehamn (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 1W 4D 5L at Wiklof Holding Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FF Jaro have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FF Jaro have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mariehamn, 2 for FF Jaro and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 0–3 with FF Jaro winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FF Jaro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 52% versus FF Jaro 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 50% | FF Jaro 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.57 xG and FF Jaro 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.742 / defence 1.203 | FF Jaro attack 0.650 / defence 1.500. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.200. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FF Jaro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.500 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Mariehamn games / 43 FF Jaro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 52% | Draw 25% | FF Jaro 22%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | FF Jaro 4.55. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 40% | FF Jaro 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs FF Jaro | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Wiklof Holding Arena • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 52% | Draw 25% | FF Jaro 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Mariehamn 1.57 / FF Jaro 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.742 / def 1.203 | FF Jaro attack 0.650 / def 1.500 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
0.94
FF Jaro xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs FF Jaro kick off?
Mariehamn vs FF Jaro kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 31 August 2026 at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?
Mariehamn 2 - 0 FF Jaro.
Where is Mariehamn vs FF Jaro being played?
The match is being played at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs FF Jaro part of?
Mariehamn vs FF Jaro is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 52% chance of winning, FF Jaro a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mariehamn and FF Jaro will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs FF Jaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and FF Jaro?
Record (4 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 1 | FF Jaro 2W.
What form are Mariehamn and FF Jaro in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. FF Jaro (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.74) and FF Jaro's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FF Jaro's attack (0.65x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.95
22%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.51
0.94
FF Jaro xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.44
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
5%
21.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and FF Jaro expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Mariehamn and 0.94 for FF Jaro, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 10W 13D 25L from 48 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FF Jaro, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 25L across 48 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for FF Jaro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Mariehamn against 1.02 for FF Jaro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mariehamn have managed 6W 7D 10L from 23 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FF Jaro's away record stands at 7W 3D 13L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mariehamn are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FF Jaro are on 1.10 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
FF Jaro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and FF Jaro in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 10W 13D 25L in their last 48 games (0.90 PPG), while FF Jaro have gone 13W 10D 25L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or FF Jaro away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.09 PPG; FF Jaro away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FF Jaro won 3-0 on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FF Jaro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
1
Draws
2
FF Jaro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and FF Jaro?
From 5 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 2, FF Jaro have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and FF Jaro last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Mariehamn 2-0 FF Jaro.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FF Jaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 52%, FF Jaro 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mariehamn) and 61% (FF Jaro).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 30% of games; FF Jaro in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / FF Jaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play FF Jaro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 48% of FF Jaro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs FF Jaro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mariehamn's recent games and 61% of FF Jaro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and FF Jaro tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FF Jaro in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FF Jaro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat FF Jaro 2-0 at Wiklof Holding Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.57 xG and FF Jaro 0.94 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FF Jaro landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.74 / defence 1.20 against FF Jaro attack 0.65 / defence 1.50, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 52% | Draw 25% | FF Jaro 22%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, FF Jaro 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
FF Jaro's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 0.90 PPG, FF Jaro 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. FF Jaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.