Mariehamn 0-2 FF Jaro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs FF Jaro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FF Jaro make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Mariehamn (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 3W 3D 4L at Wiklöf Holding Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
FF Jaro have collected 1.50 PPG across 2 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FF Jaro have played only a handful of Veikkausliiga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FF Jaro arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.99 xG and FF Jaro 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.940 / defence 1.010 | FF Jaro attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.347. Data: 22 Mariehamn games / 0 FF Jaro games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 56% | Draw 22% | FF Jaro 21%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | FF Jaro 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Mariehamn (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.4 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FF Jaro (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs FF Jaro | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 56% | Draw 22% | FF Jaro 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Mariehamn 1.99 / FF Jaro 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.940 / def 1.010 | FF Jaro attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.16
FF Jaro xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs FF Jaro kick off?
Mariehamn vs FF Jaro kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?
Mariehamn 0 - 2 FF Jaro.
Where is Mariehamn vs FF Jaro being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs FF Jaro part of?
Mariehamn vs FF Jaro is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 56% chance of winning, FF Jaro a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mariehamn and FF Jaro will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs FF Jaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and FF Jaro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and FF Jaro in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. FF Jaro (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.94) and FF Jaro's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FF Jaro's attack (0.85x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 22/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
56%
1.77
22%
4.51
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.15
1.16
FF Jaro xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
3%
34.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and FF Jaro expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.16 for FF Jaro, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs FF Jaro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mariehamn, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FF Jaro, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FF Jaro, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Mariehamn against 1.50 for FF Jaro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mariehamn are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FF Jaro are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FF Jaro in 0%.
Defensively: FF Jaro in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Early Season
FF Jaro
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and FF Jaro in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while FF Jaro have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Mariehamn or FF Jaro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FF Jaro in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FF Jaro won 3-0 on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FF Jaro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
1
Draws
2
FF Jaro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and FF Jaro?
From 5 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 2, FF Jaro have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and FF Jaro last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Mariehamn 2-0 FF Jaro.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / FF Jaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play FF Jaro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 0% of FF Jaro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs FF Jaro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mariehamn's recent games and 0% of FF Jaro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
FF Jaro cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FF Jaro beat Mariehamn 0-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.99 xG and FF Jaro 1.16 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 2.0 short of their projected output. FF Jaro outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against FF Jaro attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 22/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 56% | Draw 22% | FF Jaro 21%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a FF Jaro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, FF Jaro 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.50 PPG, FF Jaro 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FF Jaro win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FF Jaro scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.