Mariehamn 1-2 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Oulu at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs AC Oulu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AC Oulu make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 July 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
AC Oulu have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
AC Oulu arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mariehamn 62% and AC Oulu 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 50% | AC Oulu 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.85 xG and AC Oulu 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.759 / defence 1.083 | AC Oulu attack 1.421 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.045. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AC Oulu have an above-average attack strength of 1.421 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Mariehamn games / 36 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 19% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 55%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | AC Oulu 1.82. The model has a clear lean to AC Oulu (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Oulu are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Mariehamn 50% | AC Oulu 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 19% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Mariehamn 0.85 / AC Oulu 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.759 / def 1.083 | AC Oulu attack 1.421 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.61
AC Oulu xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs AC Oulu kick off?
Mariehamn vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Mariehamn 1 - 2 AC Oulu.
Where is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu part of?
Mariehamn vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 19% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mariehamn and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and AC Oulu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and AC Oulu in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. AC Oulu (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.76) and AC Oulu's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (1.42x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
19%
5.17
26%
3.89
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.46
1.61
AC Oulu xG
5.17
19%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
4%
25.80
24%
4.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.8 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.61 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mariehamn come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 11D 18L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AC Oulu sit at 1.68 PPG from 40 outings (20W 7D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mariehamn's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, AC Oulu have taken 1.74 points per game from 19 outings (10W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.65 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 20W 7D 13L in their last 40 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or AC Oulu away?
AC Oulu's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.26 PPG; AC Oulu away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mariehamn
2
Draws
4
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 4, AC Oulu have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Mariehamn, 68% for AC Oulu — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mariehamn) and 63% (AC Oulu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play AC Oulu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Mariehamn's games and 68% of AC Oulu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Mariehamn's matches and 63% of AC Oulu's.
Do Mariehamn and AC Oulu tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Oulu edge out Mariehamn 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Mariehamn 1-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.85 xG and AC Oulu 1.61 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against AC Oulu attack 1.42 / defence 0.92, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 19% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 55%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, AC Oulu 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
AC Oulu's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Oulu arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.