KuPS 2-0 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Kooteepee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KuPS host Kooteepee at Väre Areena in Veikkausliiga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 30 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
KuPS — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, KuPS have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kooteepee stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 away fixtures (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
KuPS carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, KuPS have won 2, Kooteepee 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2023, ended KuPS 0–0 Kooteepee — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
KuPS in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 19% of KuPS's games and 31% of Kooteepee's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (KuPS 19% | Kooteepee 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.27 xG and Kooteepee 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 0.911 / defence 0.798 | Kooteepee attack 0.695 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.062. Kooteepee's attack rating of 0.695 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.59. KuPS have a tight defence (rating 0.798), which is pulling Kooteepee's projected output down. Data: built from KuPS's last 39 games and Kooteepee's last 16.
Result probabilities: KuPS 51% | Draw 33% | Kooteepee 15%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.95 | Draw 3.01 | Kooteepee 6.48. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Kooteepee's lower xG of 0.59 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (KuPS's last 10 home games and Kooteepee's last 8 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KuPS 20% (last 10 home games) | Kooteepee 38% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 18 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 51% | Draw 33% | Kooteepee 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG KuPS 1.27 / Kooteepee 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 0.911 / def 0.798 | Kooteepee attack 0.695 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: KuPS (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Kooteepee xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KuPS vs Kooteepee FAQs
What time does KuPS vs Kooteepee kick off?
KuPS vs Kooteepee kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Kooteepee?
KuPS 2 - 0 Kooteepee.
Where is KuPS vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Kooteepee part of?
KuPS vs Kooteepee is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 18) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 51% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 15% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both KuPS and Kooteepee will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will KuPS vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates KuPS's attack at 0.91x the league average against Kooteepee's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KuPS's last 39 games and Kooteepee's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
51%
1.95
33%
3.01
15%
6.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
KuPS xG
Total xG
1.86
0.59
Kooteepee xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
6.48
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
55%
1.80
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
29%
3.51
4%
23.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.8 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KuPS vs Kooteepee Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are KuPS and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for KuPS and 0.59 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
KuPS come into this having played 16 games, going 10W 2D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
KuPS's home form reads 5W 0D 3L across their last 8 home games, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.62 points per game from their last 8 away games (1W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kooteepee's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KuPS are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.81 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KuPS have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Kooteepee in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
KuPS (Home) vs Kooteepee (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KuPS
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ KuPS vs Kooteepee Form FAQs
What form are KuPS and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 10W 2D 4L in their last 16 games (2.00 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Kooteepee away?
KuPS's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 1.88 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.62 PPG.
Have KuPS or Kooteepee been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Kooteepee in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 9 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
KuPS have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Aug 2021, when KuPS won KuPS 4-0 Kooteepee.
KuPS's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
0
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ KuPS vs Kooteepee H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Kooteepee?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, KuPS have won 5, Kooteepee have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did KuPS and Kooteepee last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2025: Kooteepee 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Kooteepee?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — KuPS 12% BTTS, Kooteepee 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for KuPS and 38% for Kooteepee.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kooteepee in 38%; KuPS have failed to score in 38% of games; Kooteepee in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KuPS vs Kooteepee Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KuPS and Kooteepee matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of KuPS's recent matches and 38% of Kooteepee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KuPS and Kooteepee matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of KuPS's recent games and 38% of Kooteepee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Kooteepee matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of KuPS's recent matches and 62% of Kooteepee's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Kooteepee 2-0 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 18, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.27 xG and Kooteepee 0.59 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.91 / defence 0.80 against Kooteepee attack 0.69 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 51% | Draw 33% | Kooteepee 15%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 19%, Kooteepee 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kooteepee's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.