KuPS 2-0 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Haka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KuPS host Haka at Väre Areena in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
KuPS — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS at Väre Areena this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haka have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
KuPS are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, KuPS have won 2, Haka 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
KuPS trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Haka trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 49% versus Haka 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 49% | Haka 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.77 xG and Haka 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.126 / defence 0.804 | Haka attack 1.040 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.248. Data: 44 KuPS games / 44 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 54% | Draw 25% | Haka 22%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Haka 4.55. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 60% | Haka 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 54% | Draw 25% | Haka 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG KuPS 1.77 / Haka 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.126 / def 0.804 | Haka attack 1.040 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: KuPS (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Haka xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Haka kick off?
KuPS vs Haka kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Haka?
KuPS 2 - 0 Haka.
Where is KuPS vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Haka part of?
KuPS vs Haka is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 54% chance of winning, Haka a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both KuPS and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
Record (7 meetings): KuPS 2W | Draws 3 | Haka 2W.
What form are KuPS and Haka in?
KuPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Haka (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KuPS's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.07
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.81
1.04
Haka xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
4%
27.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are KuPS and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for KuPS and 1.04 for Haka, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, KuPS have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 30W 10D 11L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 17W 16D 18L from 51 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haka.
Venue Form
On home soil, KuPS have posted 2.20 PPG from 25 outings (18W 1D 6L).
On the road, Haka have gone 8W 2D 15L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KuPS are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.41 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka in 63%.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Haka in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 30W 10D 11L in their last 51 games (1.96 PPG), while Haka have gone 17W 16D 18L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Haka away?
KuPS's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.20 PPG; Haka away: 1.04 PPG.
Have KuPS or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Haka in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KuPS's record when hosting Haka specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
3
Draws
2
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Haka have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Haka?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 44%, Haka 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for KuPS and 68% for Haka. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Haka in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of KuPS's recent matches and 52% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of KuPS's matches and 68% of Haka's.
Do KuPS and Haka tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Haka in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Haka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Haka 2-0 at Väre Areena, Championship Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.77 xG and Haka 1.04 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Haka landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.13 / defence 0.80 against Haka attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 54% | Draw 25% | Haka 22%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 49%, Haka 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Haka's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.