KuPS 2-1 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs AC Oulu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AC Oulu make the trip to Väre Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 June 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
KuPS (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's home record at Väre Areena: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena.
AC Oulu have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
AC Oulu away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. KuPS's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of AC Oulu's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for KuPS, 0 for AC Oulu and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2022, ended 3–0 with KuPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
AC Oulu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 44% versus AC Oulu 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 44% | AC Oulu 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.34 xG and AC Oulu 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.123 / defence 0.715 | AC Oulu attack 0.951 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.357. KuPS's defence rating of 0.715 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 KuPS games / 33 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 46% | Draw 29% | AC Oulu 25%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | AC Oulu 4.00. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 40% | AC Oulu 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jun 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 46% | Draw 29% | AC Oulu 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG KuPS 1.34 / AC Oulu 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.123 / def 0.715 | AC Oulu attack 0.951 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: KuPS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.92
AC Oulu xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs AC Oulu kick off?
KuPS vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 22 June 2022 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs AC Oulu?
KuPS 2 - 1 AC Oulu.
Where is KuPS vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs AC Oulu part of?
KuPS vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 46% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both KuPS and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and AC Oulu?
Record (1 meetings): KuPS 1W | Draws 0 | AC Oulu 0W.
What form are KuPS and AC Oulu in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KuPS's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against AC Oulu's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (0.95x) against KuPS's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.47
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.27
0.92
AC Oulu xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are KuPS and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for KuPS and 0.92 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KuPS's recent record stands at 17W 7D 3L from 27 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 15L across 27 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 1.19 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AC Oulu heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, KuPS have managed 8W 5D 1L from 14 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Oulu's away record stands at 2W 3D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 0.85 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 17W 7D 3L in their last 27 games (2.15 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 7W 5D 15L in their last 27 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or AC Oulu away?
KuPS's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.07 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.64 PPG.
Have KuPS or AC Oulu been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, AC Oulu in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 17 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
KuPS
1
Draws
2
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 7, AC Oulu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when AC Oulu 2-0 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and AC Oulu?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
AC Oulu see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 36%, AC Oulu 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (KuPS) and 50% (AC Oulu).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; AC Oulu in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play AC Oulu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of KuPS's recent matches and 43% of AC Oulu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of KuPS's recent games and 50% of AC Oulu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and AC Oulu tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out AC Oulu 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat AC Oulu 2-1 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.34 xG and AC Oulu 0.92 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.12 / defence 0.71 against AC Oulu attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 46% | Draw 29% | AC Oulu 25%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 44%, AC Oulu 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Oulu's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.