Kooteepee 2-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mariehamn (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kooteepee face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Mariehamn travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Kooteepee haven't played a Veikkausliiga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Arto Tolsa Areena, Kooteepee have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mariehamn — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kooteepee register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Mariehamn in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Mariehamn have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Kooteepee's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–5 with Mariehamn winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mariehamn have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kooteepee 63% and Mariehamn 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 63% | Mariehamn 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 0.74 xG and Mariehamn 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.611 / defence 1.064 | Mariehamn attack 0.997 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.081. Kooteepee's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Kooteepee games / 24 Mariehamn games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 20% | Draw 38% | Mariehamn 42%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 5.00 | Draw 2.63 | Mariehamn 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 5.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Kooteepee 60% | Mariehamn 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 20% | Draw 38% | Mariehamn 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Kooteepee 0.74 / Mariehamn 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.611 / def 1.064 | Mariehamn attack 0.997 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Mariehamn xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs Mariehamn kick off?
Kooteepee vs Mariehamn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Kooteepee 2 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn part of?
Kooteepee vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 20% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 42% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Kooteepee and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
Record (3 meetings): Kooteepee 0W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 3W.
What form are Kooteepee and Mariehamn in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kooteepee's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
20%
4.91
38%
2.65
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
1.89
1.15
Mariehamn xG
4.91
20%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
6%
15.47
20%
5.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 17.4 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.15 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kooteepee's recent record stands at 2W 5D 20L from 27 games, a 0.41 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. Kooteepee haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 11L across 27 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mariehamn by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kooteepee heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kooteepee have managed 1W 2D 10L from 13 games — 0.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 4W 2D 7L across 13 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mariehamn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kooteepee are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.52 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kooteepee have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Mariehamn in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 2W 5D 20L in their last 27 games (0.41 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or Mariehamn away?
Mariehamn's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 0.38 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Mariehamn won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kooteepee's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Kooteepee
3
Draws
5
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
From 9 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 1, Mariehamn have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Kooteepee 1-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 62%, Mariehamn 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kooteepee) and 46% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Kooteepee have failed to score in 31% of games; Mariehamn in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kooteepee's games and 54% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kooteepee's recent games and 46% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kooteepee defy the odds to beat Mariehamn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kooteepee beat Mariehamn 2-1 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.74 xG and Mariehamn 1.15 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kooteepee beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.61 / defence 1.06 against Mariehamn attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 20% | Draw 38% | Mariehamn 42%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Kooteepee win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 63%, Mariehamn 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mariehamn arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.41. Form was overturned, with Kooteepee winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.