Kooteepee 0-0 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kooteepee vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees KuPS travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 April 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kooteepee — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Kooteepee haven't played a Veikkausliiga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kooteepee at Arto Tolsa Areena this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, KuPS have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, KuPS have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour KuPS — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kooteepee, 2 for KuPS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with KuPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
KuPS in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 63% versus KuPS 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 63% | KuPS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 0.84 xG and KuPS 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.718 / defence 1.211 | KuPS attack 1.004 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.204. Kooteepee's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 1 Kooteepee games / 23 KuPS games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 18% | Draw 34% | KuPS 48%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 5.56 | Draw 2.94 | KuPS 2.08. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kooteepee 60% | KuPS 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 18% | Draw 34% | KuPS 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Kooteepee 0.84 / KuPS 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.718 / def 1.211 | KuPS attack 1.004 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: KuPS (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.46
KuPS xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs KuPS kick off?
Kooteepee vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs KuPS?
Kooteepee 0 - 0 KuPS.
Where is Kooteepee vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs KuPS part of?
Kooteepee vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 18% chance of winning, KuPS a 48% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kooteepee and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and KuPS?
Record (2 meetings): Kooteepee 0W | Draws 0 | KuPS 2W.
What form are Kooteepee and KuPS in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. KuPS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kooteepee's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
18%
5.62
34%
2.94
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.30
1.46
KuPS xG
5.62
18%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
4%
24.30
21%
4.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 14.7 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.46 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Kooteepee have picked up 0.41 PPG on a 2W 5D 20L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. Kooteepee haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
KuPS's form line: 17W 6D 4L from 27 games, 2.11 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 1.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kooteepee.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kooteepee have posted 0.38 PPG from 13 outings (1W 2D 10L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 7W 2D 4L from 13 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kooteepee are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.59 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kooteepee have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and KuPS in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 2W 5D 20L in their last 27 games (0.41 PPG), while KuPS have gone 17W 6D 4L in their last 27 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 0.38 PPG; KuPS away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Kooteepee or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kooteepee have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, KuPS in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kooteepee and KuPS runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 9 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when KuPS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kooteepee's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Kooteepee
1
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and KuPS?
From 6 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 0, KuPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Kooteepee 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 62%, KuPS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kooteepee) and 46% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 38%; Kooteepee have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kooteepee's games and 54% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kooteepee vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kooteepee's recent games and 46% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and KuPS tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, KuPS in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kooteepee's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kooteepee and KuPS finished level at 0-0 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.84 xG and KuPS 1.46 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kooteepee fell 0.8 short of their projected output. KuPS landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.72 / defence 1.21 against KuPS attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 1/23 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 18% | Draw 34% | KuPS 48%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 63%, KuPS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KuPS's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.