Kooteepee 1-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kooteepee vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees KuPS travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kooteepee — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kooteepee at Arto Tolsa Areena this season: 0W 2D 7L from 9 home games — 0.22 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, KuPS have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, KuPS have gone 6W 1D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.11 PPG). They are averaging 1.89 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour KuPS — 2.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kooteepee, 1 for KuPS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 0–4 with KuPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
KuPS in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 53% versus KuPS 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 53% | KuPS 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 0.61 xG and KuPS 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.655 / defence 1.511 | KuPS attack 1.196 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.151. Kooteepee's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 0.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Kooteepee games / 19 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 10% | Draw 19% | KuPS 72%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 10.00 | Draw 5.26 | KuPS 1.39. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kooteepee 56% | KuPS 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 10% | Draw 19% | KuPS 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 40% | xG Kooteepee 0.61 / KuPS 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.655 / def 1.511 | KuPS attack 1.196 / def 1.001 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: KuPS (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.61
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
2.08
KuPS xG
40%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs KuPS kick off?
Kooteepee vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs KuPS?
Kooteepee 1 - 2 KuPS.
Where is Kooteepee vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs KuPS part of?
Kooteepee vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 10% chance of winning, KuPS a 72% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Kooteepee and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and KuPS?
Record (1 meetings): Kooteepee 0W | Draws 0 | KuPS 1W.
What form are Kooteepee and KuPS in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. KuPS (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kooteepee's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.61. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-3 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
10%
10.21
19%
5.38
72%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
0 – 3
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.61
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.69
2.08
KuPS xG
10.21
10%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
1.40
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
13%
8.00
54%
1.85
Win to Nil
1%
81.68
39%
2.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 14.1 | 14.6 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.61 expected goals for Kooteepee and 2.08 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs KuPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Kooteepee have picked up 0.42 PPG on a 1W 5D 13L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 13W 3D 3L from 19 games, 2.21 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 1.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kooteepee.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kooteepee have posted 0.22 PPG from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 6W 1D 2L from 9 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kooteepee are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.84 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and KuPS in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 1W 5D 13L in their last 19 games (0.42 PPG), while KuPS have gone 13W 3D 3L in their last 19 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 0.22 PPG; KuPS away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Kooteepee or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kooteepee have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, KuPS in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kooteepee and KuPS runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 9 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when KuPS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kooteepee's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Kooteepee
1
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and KuPS?
From 6 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 0, KuPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Kooteepee 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 56%, KuPS 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Kooteepee) and 33% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 44%; Kooteepee have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 44% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kooteepee vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Kooteepee's recent games and 33% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and KuPS tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, KuPS in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Kooteepee 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Kooteepee 1-2 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.61 xG and KuPS 2.08 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.66 / defence 1.51 against KuPS attack 1.20 / defence 1.00, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 10% | Draw 19% | KuPS 72%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 53%, KuPS 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 0.42. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.