Kooteepee 0-3 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kooteepee face Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ilves travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee in Veikkausliiga (Relegation Round - 2). The game is scheduled for Friday 22 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kooteepee stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kooteepee's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Kooteepee are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Ilves have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ilves's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kooteepee at 0.50 PPG versus Ilves's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Kooteepee have won 0, Ilves 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 8 Jul 2023, ended Kooteepee 0–0 Ilves — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kooteepee trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Ilves trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 48% versus Ilves 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 48% | Ilves 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 1.01 xG and Ilves 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.795 / defence 1.260 | Ilves attack 0.898 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.278. Kooteepee's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Kooteepee's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ilves's projected output up. Data: built from Kooteepee's last 22 games and Ilves's last 44.
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 26% | Draw 27% | Ilves 47%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 3.83 | Draw 3.67 | Ilves 2.14. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kooteepee 50% (last 10 home games) | Ilves 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 26% | Draw 27% | Ilves 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Kooteepee 1.01 / Ilves 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.795 / def 1.260 | Ilves attack 0.898 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Ilves (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Ilves xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kooteepee vs Ilves FAQs
What time does Kooteepee vs Ilves kick off?
Kooteepee vs Ilves kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 22 September 2023 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Kooteepee 0 - 3 Ilves.
Where is Kooteepee vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Ilves part of?
Kooteepee vs Ilves is a Veikkausliiga fixture (Relegation Round - 2) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 26% chance of winning, Ilves a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kooteepee and Ilves will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Kooteepee vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kooteepee's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kooteepee's last 22 games and Ilves's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
26%
3.83
27%
3.67
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.46
1.45
Ilves xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
6%
16.26
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kooteepee vs Ilves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.45 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kooteepee come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 5D 13L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 0.91 PPG from 23 outings (4W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kooteepee on 0.87 PPG, Ilves on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kooteepee's home form reads 3W 3D 5L across their last 11 home games, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 11 away games (2W 3D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kooteepee are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 0.96 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Blended
Ilves
Blended
Kooteepee (Home) vs Ilves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kooteepee
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Kooteepee vs Ilves Form FAQs
What form are Kooteepee and Ilves in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 games (0.87 PPG), while Ilves have gone 4W 9D 10L in their last 23 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or Ilves away?
Kooteepee's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 1.09 PPG; Ilves away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Kooteepee or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kooteepee have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ilves in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2021. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 2 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ilves have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Apr 2025, when Ilves won Kooteepee 0-5 Ilves.
Kooteepee's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Kooteepee
2
Draws
5
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Kooteepee vs Ilves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Ilves?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Kooteepee have won 0, Ilves have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Ilves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 July 2025: Ilves 2-1 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ilves see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 46%, Ilves 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Kooteepee) and 36% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Kooteepee keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Kooteepee have failed to score in 36% of games; Ilves in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kooteepee vs Ilves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kooteepee and Ilves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 36% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kooteepee and Ilves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Kooteepee's recent games and 36% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and Ilves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 54% of Ilves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ilves run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Kooteepee 0-3 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Relegation Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.01 xG and Ilves 1.45 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kooteepee fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Ilves outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against Ilves attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 26% | Draw 27% | Ilves 47%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 48%, Ilves 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ilves's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kooteepee 0.87 PPG, Ilves 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.