Ilves 0-2 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 37%, yet in-form VPS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ilves vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ilves welcome VPS to Ratinan Stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 17). Kick-off is Friday 28 July 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Ilves — last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ilves at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, VPS stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, VPS have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. VPS's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Ilves's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Ilves have won 1, VPS 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2023, ended Ilves 2–0 VPS — a Ilves win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ilves in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
VPS in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 60% versus VPS 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 49% | VPS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.12 xG and VPS 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.923 / defence 0.961 | VPS attack 0.971 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.037. Data: built from Ilves's last 38 games and VPS's last 39.
Result probabilities: Ilves 37% | Draw 33% | VPS 29%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.68 | Draw 2.99 | VPS 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VPS (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ilves 70% (last 10 home games) | VPS 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 17 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 July 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 37% | Draw 33% | VPS 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Ilves 1.12 / VPS 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.923 / def 0.961 | VPS attack 0.971 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Ilves (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.97
VPS xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ilves vs VPS FAQs
What time does Ilves vs VPS kick off?
Ilves vs VPS kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 28 July 2023 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs VPS?
Ilves 0 - 2 VPS.
Where is Ilves vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs VPS part of?
Ilves vs VPS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 17) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 37% chance of winning, VPS a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ilves and VPS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Ilves vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ilves's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against VPS's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ilves's last 38 games and VPS's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
37%
2.68
33%
2.99
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.09
0.97
VPS xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ilves vs VPS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ilves and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Ilves and 0.97 for VPS, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ilves's recent record stands at 12W 15D 16L from 43 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 18L across 43 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ilves on 1.19 PPG, VPS on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 7W 6D 9L from their last 22 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 11W 3D 8L across their last 22 away games, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ilves are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.60 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
VPS
Blended
Ilves (Home) vs VPS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ilves
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Ilves vs VPS Form FAQs
What form are Ilves and VPS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 12W 15D 16L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while VPS have gone 18W 7D 18L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.23 PPG; VPS away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: VPS have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Ilves's record when hosting VPS specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Ilves vs VPS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and VPS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ilves have won 4, VPS have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ilves and VPS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Ilves 0-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 68%, VPS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ilves) and 59% (VPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ilves vs VPS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ilves and VPS matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Ilves's games and 50% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ilves and VPS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Ilves's matches and 59% of VPS's.
Do Ilves and VPS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Ilves's recent matches and 68% of VPS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VPS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ilves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Ilves 0-2 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.12 xG and VPS 0.97 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ilves fell 1.1 short of their projected output. VPS outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against VPS attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 37% | Draw 33% | VPS 29%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual VPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 49%, VPS 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VPS's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.19 PPG, VPS 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. VPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.