Ilves 3-1 SJK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ilves at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and SJK meet at Ratinan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ratinan Stadion, Ilves have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ratinan Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SJK have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SJK have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
SJK — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 37% versus SJK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 37% | SJK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.12 xG and SJK 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.157 / defence 1.017 | SJK attack 0.773 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.458. SJK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Ilves games / 26 SJK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ilves 60% | Draw 21% | SJK 20%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | SJK 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 63% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ilves 20% | SJK 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 60% | Draw 21% | SJK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Ilves 2.12 / SJK 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.157 / def 1.017 | SJK attack 0.773 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Ilves (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SJK xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs SJK kick off?
Ilves vs SJK kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs SJK?
Ilves 3 - 1 SJK.
Where is Ilves vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs SJK part of?
Ilves vs SJK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 60% chance of winning, SJK a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ilves and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and SJK in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ilves's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.77x) against Ilves's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.87
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.26
1.15
SJK xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
12%
8.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
2%
41.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Ilves and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Ilves and 1.15 for SJK, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs SJK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 11W 3D 13L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 14W 6D 7L from 27 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ilves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 1.92 PPG from 13 outings (8W 1D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Ilves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SJK have gone 6W 2D 5L from 13 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.67 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and SJK in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 11W 3D 13L in their last 27 games (1.33 PPG), while SJK have gone 14W 6D 7L in their last 27 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or SJK away?
Ilves's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.92 PPG; SJK away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Ilves or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, SJK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ilves
6
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 1, SJK have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 23% (Ilves) and 31% (SJK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Ilves) and 46% (SJK).
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; SJK in 38%; Ilves have failed to score in 31% of games; SJK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Ilves's recent matches and 31% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Ilves's recent games and 46% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and SJK tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, SJK in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat SJK 3-1 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.12 xG and SJK 1.15 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.16 / defence 1.02 against SJK attack 0.77 / defence 1.38, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 60% | Draw 21% | SJK 20%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 37%, SJK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
SJK's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Ilves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. SJK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.