Ilves vs SJK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and SJK meet at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tammelan Stadion, Ilves have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tammelan Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ilves are significantly better at Tammelan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SJK have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SJK have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ilves lead 1W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 6 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
SJK — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ilves 63% and SJK 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ilves 70% | SJK 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.52 xG and SJK 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.022 / defence 0.906 | SJK attack 0.807 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.167. Data: 44 Ilves games / 44 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 53% | Draw 26% | SJK 21%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | SJK 4.76. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 30% | SJK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group - 27 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 53% | Draw 26% | SJK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Ilves 1.52 / SJK 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.022 / def 0.906 | SJK attack 0.807 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Ilves (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.85
SJK xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs SJK kick off?
Ilves vs SJK is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Tammelan Stadion.
Where is Ilves vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs SJK part of?
Ilves vs SJK is a Relegation Group - 27 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 53% chance of winning, SJK a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ilves and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
Record (10 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 6 | SJK 3W.
What form are Ilves and SJK in?
Ilves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. SJK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ilves's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.81x) against Ilves's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.85
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.37
0.85
SJK xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
5%
21.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ilves and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Ilves and 0.85 for SJK, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 25W 10D 19L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 21W 15D 18L from 54 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Ilves against 1.44 for SJK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 1.96 PPG from 27 outings (16W 5D 6L).
On the road, SJK have gone 9W 8D 10L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.76 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; SJK in 67%.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and SJK in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 25W 10D 19L in their last 54 games (1.57 PPG), while SJK have gone 21W 15D 18L in their last 54 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or SJK away?
Ilves's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.96 PPG; SJK away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ilves
6
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 1, SJK have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 63%, SJK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ilves and 70% for SJK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SJK in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ilves's games and 67% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ilves's matches and 70% of SJK's.
Do Ilves and SJK tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SJK in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.