Ilves 3-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and KuPS meet at Ratinan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 0.91 xG and KuPS 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.833 / defence 1.353 | KuPS attack 1.043 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 0.883 / away 1.436. KuPS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Ilves games / 4 KuPS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ilves 15% | Draw 23% | KuPS 62%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 6.67 | Draw 4.35 | KuPS 1.61. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 15% | Draw 23% | KuPS 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Ilves 0.91 / KuPS 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.833 / def 1.353 | KuPS attack 1.043 / def 1.239 | league avg home 0.883 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: KuPS (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
2.03
KuPS xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs KuPS kick off?
Ilves vs KuPS kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 22 May 2021 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Ilves 3 - 2 KuPS.
Where is Ilves vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs KuPS part of?
Ilves vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 15% chance of winning, KuPS a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ilves and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and KuPS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ilves's attack rating (0.83) and KuPS's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.04x) against Ilves's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
The sample (3/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.9%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
15%
6.63
23%
4.41
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.94
2.03
KuPS xG
6.63
15%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
13%
7.58
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
2%
50.29
25%
4.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Ilves and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Ilves and 2.03 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs KuPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Pre-Season
KuPS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
KuPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, KuPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Ilves defy the odds to beat KuPS 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat KuPS 3-2 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 0.91 xG and KuPS 2.03 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.83 / defence 1.35 against KuPS attack 1.04 / defence 1.24, drawn from 3/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 15% | Draw 23% | KuPS 62%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Ilves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.