Honka 0-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Honka at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Honka vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to Tapiolan Urheilupuisto to face Honka in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 20 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Honka (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Honka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Honka at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Honka against 1.60 for Ilves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Honka 1W, Ilves 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Honka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Honka 56% versus Ilves 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Honka 48% | Ilves 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Honka 2.31 xG and Ilves 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Honka attack 1.460 / defence 0.970 | Ilves attack 0.952 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.363. Honka carry an above-average attack strength of 1.460 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Honka games / 29 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Honka 61% | Draw 20% | Ilves 20%. Fair-value odds: Honka 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Ilves 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Honka (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Honka as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Honka 50% | Ilves 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Honka vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tapiolan Urheilupuisto • Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Honka 61% | Draw 20% | Ilves 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Honka 2.31 / Ilves 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Honka attack 1.460 / def 0.970 | Ilves attack 0.952 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Honka (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Honka xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Ilves xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Honka vs Ilves kick off?
Honka vs Ilves kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 20 May 2022 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What was the final score in Honka vs Ilves?
Honka 0 - 0 Ilves.
Where is Honka vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What competition is Honka vs Ilves part of?
Honka vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Honka vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Honka a 61% chance of winning, Ilves a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Honka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Honka vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Honka and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Honka vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and Ilves?
Record (2 meetings): Honka 1W | Draws 1 | Ilves 0W.
What form are Honka and Ilves in?
Honka (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Honka's attack rating (1.46) and Ilves's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.95x) against Honka's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Honka Win
61%
1.65
20%
5.03
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Honka xG
Total xG
3.57
1.26
Ilves xG
1.65
61%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
10%
10.07
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
2%
51.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Honka vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Honka and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Honka and 1.26 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Honka vs Ilves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Honka's recent record stands at 9W 6D 12L from 27 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Honka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 13L across 27 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Honka against 1.33 for Ilves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Honka have managed 5W 3D 6L from 14 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 3W 2D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ilves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Honka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Honka are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.07 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Honka
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Honka and Ilves in coming into this match?
Honka have gone 9W 6D 12L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while Ilves have gone 11W 3D 13L in their last 27 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Honka at home or Ilves away?
Honka's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Honka at home: 1.29 PPG; Ilves away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Honka or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Honka have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Ilves in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Honka won 0-4 on 13 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Honka have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Honka
3
Draws
0
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and Ilves?
From 6 meetings on record, Honka have won 3, Ilves have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Honka and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when Honka 2-0 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Honka and Ilves?
Honka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Honka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Honka 50%, Ilves 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Honka) and 43% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Honka have failed to score in 43% of games; Ilves in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Honka home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Honka play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Honka's recent matches and 50% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Honka vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Honka's recent games and 43% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Honka and Ilves tend to score early?
Honka have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ilves in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Honka's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto, Regular Season - 8, as Honka and Ilves drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Honka 2.31 xG and Ilves 1.26 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Honka fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Ilves landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Honka attack 1.46 / defence 0.97 against Ilves attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Honka 61% | Draw 20% | Ilves 20%, with Honka to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Honka 48%, Ilves 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Honka's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ilves's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Honka 1.22 PPG, Ilves 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Honka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.