Haka 1-2 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Conference League Play-offs - Final as Haka welcome SJK to Tehtaan kenttä. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 30 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Haka at Tehtaan kenttä this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SJK stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haka at 1.10 PPG versus SJK's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haka register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, SJK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Haka have won 3, SJK 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with SJK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Haka in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
SJK in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haka 62% and SJK 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 58% | SJK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.67 xG and SJK 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.045 / defence 1.083 | SJK attack 1.078 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.249. Data: 44 Haka games / 44 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 42% | Draw 25% | SJK 33%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | SJK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 70% | SJK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Conference League Play-offs - Final | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 42% | Draw 25% | SJK 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Haka 1.67 / SJK 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.045 / def 1.083 | SJK attack 1.078 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Haka (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.46
SJK xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs SJK kick off?
Haka vs SJK kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 30 October 2024 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs SJK?
Haka 1 - 2 SJK.
Where is Haka vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs SJK part of?
Haka vs SJK is a Conference League Play-offs - Final fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 42% chance of winning, SJK a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Haka and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and SJK?
Record (6 meetings): Haka 3W | Draws 0 | SJK 3W.
What form are Haka and SJK in?
Haka (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. SJK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Haka vs SJK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haka's attack at 1.04x the league average against SJK's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
42%
2.36
25%
4.06
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Haka xG
Total xG
3.13
1.46
SJK xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
6%
16.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Haka and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Haka and 1.46 for SJK, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Haka have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 19W 17D 19L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
SJK's form line: 23W 14D 18L from 55 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.35 PPG, SJK on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haka have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (10W 13D 4L).
On the road, SJK have gone 10W 9D 8L from 27 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.51 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Current Season
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and SJK in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 19W 17D 19L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while SJK have gone 23W 14D 18L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or SJK away?
Haka's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.59 PPG; SJK away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haka and SJK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when SJK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting SJK specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
2
Draws
5
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, SJK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Haka 2-3 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Haka and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 74%, SJK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Haka) and 56% (SJK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SJK in 33%; SJK in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Haka's games and 48% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Haka's matches and 56% of SJK's.
Do Haka and SJK tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, SJK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SJK defy the odds to beat Haka 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Haka 1-2 at Tehtaan kenttä, Conference League Play-offs - Final, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.67 xG and SJK 1.46 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against SJK attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 42% | Draw 25% | SJK 33%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual SJK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 58%, SJK 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SJK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.35 PPG, SJK 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.