Haka 2-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haka host KuPS at Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 27 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Haka — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Haka have posted 1W 8D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, KuPS have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
KuPS's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. KuPS's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Haka's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Haka, 2 for KuPS and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Jun 2023, ended Haka 0–3 KuPS — a KuPS win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
KuPS in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 62% versus KuPS 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 57% | KuPS 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.06 xG and KuPS 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.092 / defence 1.059 | KuPS attack 1.228 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.243. KuPS bring a tight defence (rating 0.770, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Haka's projected output down. KuPS have an above-average attack rating of 1.228, which lifts their away xG to 1.62. Data: built from Haka's last 42 games and KuPS's last 42.
Result probabilities: Haka 24% | Draw 26% | KuPS 49%. Fair-value odds: Haka 4.14 | Draw 3.78 | KuPS 2.02. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haka 100% (last 10 home games) | KuPS 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 21 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 24% | Draw 26% | KuPS 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Haka 1.06 / KuPS 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.092 / def 1.059 | KuPS attack 1.228 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: KuPS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.62
KuPS xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haka vs KuPS FAQs
What time does Haka vs KuPS kick off?
Haka vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs KuPS?
Haka 2 - 2 KuPS.
Where is Haka vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs KuPS part of?
Haka vs KuPS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 21) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 24% chance of winning, KuPS a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Haka and KuPS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haka vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haka's attack at 1.09x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haka's last 42 games and KuPS's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
24%
4.14
26%
3.78
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Haka xG
Total xG
2.68
1.62
KuPS xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
5%
20.89
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haka vs KuPS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Haka and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Haka and 1.62 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haka come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 14D 16L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, KuPS sit at 2.09 PPG from 47 outings (30W 8D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Haka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haka's home form reads 8W 10D 4L across their last 22 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, KuPS have taken 1.95 points per game from their last 22 away games (13W 4D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.55 scored and 0.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
KuPS
Blended
Haka (Home) vs KuPS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haka
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Haka vs KuPS Form FAQs
What form are Haka and KuPS in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while KuPS have gone 30W 8D 9L in their last 47 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.55 PPG; KuPS away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Haka or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, KuPS in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 2 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won KuPS 3-0 Haka.
Haka's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haka
3
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Haka vs KuPS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and KuPS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Haka have won 2, KuPS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and KuPS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2025: KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
KuPS see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 82%, KuPS 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Haka) and 36% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haka vs KuPS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haka and KuPS matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Haka's games and 41% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haka and KuPS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Haka's recent games and 36% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and KuPS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Haka's recent matches and 59% of KuPS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka and KuPS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 21, as Haka and KuPS drew 2-2 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.06 xG and KuPS 1.62 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Haka beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against KuPS attack 1.23 / defence 0.77, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 24% | Draw 26% | KuPS 49%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 57%, KuPS 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KuPS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.