Gnistan 3-2 SJK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gnistan at 56%, yet in-form SJK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gnistan vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Gnistan welcome SJK to Markku.fi Areena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Gnistan have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gnistan's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Markku.fi Areena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SJK — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
SJK's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SJK are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gnistan register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SJK in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour SJK, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Gnistan.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with SJK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SJK have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Gnistan trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SJK trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gnistan 64% and SJK 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Gnistan 66% | SJK 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.80 xG and SJK 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 1.272 / defence 1.249 | SJK attack 0.785 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 0.962. Gnistan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Gnistan games / 30 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gnistan 56% | Draw 25% | SJK 18%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | SJK 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Gnistan (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gnistan as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SJK (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Gnistan 60% | SJK 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Markku.fi Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 56% | Draw 25% | SJK 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Gnistan 1.80 / SJK 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 1.272 / def 1.249 | SJK attack 0.785 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.379 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Gnistan (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
0.94
SJK xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gnistan vs SJK kick off?
Gnistan vs SJK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at Markku.fi Areena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs SJK?
Gnistan 3 - 2 SJK.
Where is Gnistan vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Markku.fi Areena.
What competition is Gnistan vs SJK part of?
Gnistan vs SJK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 56% chance of winning, SJK a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gnistan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gnistan and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Gnistan vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and SJK?
Record (6 meetings): Gnistan 1W | Draws 1 | SJK 4W.
What form are Gnistan and SJK in?
Gnistan (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gnistan's attack rating (1.27) and SJK's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus Gnistan's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gnistan Win
56%
1.77
25%
3.95
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.74
0.94
SJK xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
3%
32.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Gnistan and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Gnistan and 0.94 for SJK, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs SJK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Gnistan have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 19W 17D 25L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
SJK's form line: 29W 16D 16L from 61 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gnistan.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gnistan have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
On the road, SJK have gone 14W 7D 9L from 30 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gnistan are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.97 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gnistan have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SJK in 69%.
Last 61 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Current Season
SJK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gnistan and SJK in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 19W 17D 25L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while SJK have gone 29W 16D 16L in their last 61 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gnistan at home or SJK away?
SJK's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gnistan at home: 1.33 PPG; SJK away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2025, when SJK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gnistan's record when hosting SJK specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gnistan
2
Draws
4
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and SJK?
From 8 meetings on record, Gnistan have won 2, SJK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when SJK 2-2 Gnistan.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gnistan 57%, SJK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Gnistan and 83% for SJK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gnistan have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gnistan play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Gnistan's games and 67% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gnistan vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Gnistan's matches and 83% of SJK's.
Do Gnistan and SJK tend to score early?
Gnistan have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SJK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gnistan edge out SJK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan beat SJK 3-2 at Markku.fi Areena, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.80 xG and SJK 0.94 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gnistan beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SJK outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 1.27 / defence 1.25 against SJK attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 56% | Draw 25% | SJK 18%, with Gnistan to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 66%, SJK 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gnistan's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SJK's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Gnistan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gnistan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. SJK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.