FF Jaro vs PK-35 – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FF Jaro at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FF Jaro vs PK-35 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Project Liv Arena plays host to FF Jaro versus PK-35 in Veikkausliiga, Final. Kick-off: Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
FF Jaro (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FF Jaro's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Project Liv Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FF Jaro are significantly better at Project Liv Arena than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FF Jaro 1.46 xG and PK-35 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FF Jaro attack 0.928 / defence 1.118 | PK-35 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.166. Data: 44 FF Jaro games / 0 PK-35 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FF Jaro 45% | Draw 26% | PK-35 29%. Fair-value odds: FF Jaro 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | PK-35 3.45. FF Jaro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FF Jaro at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FF Jaro if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FF Jaro vs PK-35 | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Final | Venue: Project Liv Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FF Jaro 45% | Draw 26% | PK-35 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG FF Jaro 1.46 / PK-35 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: FF Jaro attack 0.928 / def 1.118 | PK-35 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: FF Jaro (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FF Jaro xG
Expected Goals
1.11
PK-35 xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FF Jaro vs PK-35 kick off?
FF Jaro vs PK-35 is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Project Liv Arena.
Where is FF Jaro vs PK-35 being played?
The match is being played at Project Liv Arena.
What competition is FF Jaro vs PK-35 part of?
FF Jaro vs PK-35 is a Final fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win FF Jaro vs PK-35?
Our statistical model gives FF Jaro a 45% chance of winning, PK-35 a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FF Jaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in FF Jaro vs PK-35?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FF Jaro and PK-35 will score (BTTS).
Will FF Jaro vs PK-35 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and PK-35?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FF Jaro and PK-35 in?
FF Jaro (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. FF Jaro home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FF Jaro's attack at 0.93x the league average against PK-35's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PK-35's attack (0.85x) against FF Jaro's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 44/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FF Jaro Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.84
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FF Jaro xG
Total xG
2.57
1.11
PK-35 xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
7%
15.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FF Jaro vs PK-35?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FF Jaro and PK-35 expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FF Jaro and 1.11 for PK-35, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FF Jaro vs PK-35?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FF Jaro
Pre-Season
PK-35
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FF Jaro home games / PK-35 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.