FF Jaro 0-1 Lahti – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FF Jaro at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FF Jaro vs Lahti encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Lahti travel to Project Liv Arena to take on FF Jaro. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FF Jaro — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Project Liv Arena, FF Jaro have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Project Liv Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lahti stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Lahti haven't played a Veikkausliiga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Lahti have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, FF Jaro have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FF Jaro have won 1, Lahti 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Lahti winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FF Jaro trading profile (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Lahti trading profile (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FF Jaro 62% versus Lahti 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FF Jaro 62% | Lahti 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FF Jaro 1.81 xG and Lahti 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FF Jaro attack 0.952 / defence 1.058 | Lahti attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.251. Data: 22 FF Jaro games / 0 Lahti games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FF Jaro 50% | Draw 29% | Lahti 20%. Fair-value odds: FF Jaro 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Lahti 5.00. FF Jaro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FF Jaro are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FF Jaro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: FF Jaro 80% | Lahti 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FF Jaro vs Lahti | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Project Liv Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FF Jaro 50% | Draw 29% | Lahti 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG FF Jaro 1.81 / Lahti 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FF Jaro attack 0.952 / def 1.058 | Lahti attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: FF Jaro (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
FF Jaro xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Lahti xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FF Jaro vs Lahti kick off?
FF Jaro vs Lahti kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Project Liv Arena.
What was the final score in FF Jaro vs Lahti?
FF Jaro 0 - 1 Lahti.
Where is FF Jaro vs Lahti being played?
The match is being played at Project Liv Arena.
What competition is FF Jaro vs Lahti part of?
FF Jaro vs Lahti is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win FF Jaro vs Lahti?
Our statistical model gives FF Jaro a 50% chance of winning, Lahti a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FF Jaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in FF Jaro vs Lahti?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FF Jaro and Lahti will score (BTTS).
Will FF Jaro vs Lahti have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and Lahti?
Record (2 meetings): FF Jaro 1W | Draws 0 | Lahti 1W.
What form are FF Jaro and Lahti in?
FF Jaro (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Lahti (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FF Jaro's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Lahti's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Lahti's attack versus FF Jaro's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FF Jaro Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.41
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
FF Jaro xG
Total xG
2.94
1.12
Lahti xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
3%
30.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FF Jaro vs Lahti?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FF Jaro and Lahti expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for FF Jaro and 1.12 for Lahti, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for FF Jaro vs Lahti?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, FF Jaro have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 11W 4D 14L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FF Jaro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lahti's form line: 5W 12D 12L from 29 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. Lahti haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: FF Jaro on 1.28 PPG, Lahti on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FF Jaro have posted 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L).
On the road, Lahti have gone 0W 7D 8L from 15 away games — 0.47 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lahti's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FF Jaro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FF Jaro are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Lahti are on 1.10 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FF Jaro have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FF Jaro
Blended
Lahti
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FF Jaro and Lahti in coming into this match?
FF Jaro have gone 11W 4D 14L in their last 29 games (1.28 PPG), while Lahti have gone 5W 12D 12L in their last 29 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FF Jaro at home or Lahti away?
FF Jaro's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FF Jaro at home: 1.00 PPG; Lahti away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lahti have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
FF Jaro's record when hosting Lahti specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FF Jaro
0
Draws
3
Lahti
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and Lahti?
From 4 meetings on record, FF Jaro have won 1, Lahti have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FF Jaro and Lahti last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Lahti 2-0 FF Jaro.
Who has won more matches between FF Jaro and Lahti?
Lahti have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FF Jaro see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FF Jaro 67%, Lahti 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FF Jaro and 60% for Lahti. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FF Jaro have failed to score in 27% of games; Lahti in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FF Jaro home games / Lahti away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FF Jaro play Lahti?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FF Jaro's games and 47% of Lahti's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FF Jaro vs Lahti usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FF Jaro's matches and 60% of Lahti's.
Do FF Jaro and Lahti tend to score early?
FF Jaro have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Lahti in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lahti defy the odds to beat FF Jaro 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lahti beat FF Jaro 0-1 at Project Liv Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.81 xG and Lahti 1.12 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FF Jaro fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against Lahti attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 22/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 50% | Draw 29% | Lahti 20%, with FF Jaro to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Lahti win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 62%, Lahti 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FF Jaro's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Lahti's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FF Jaro 1.28 PPG, Lahti 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lahti win broke the near-deadlock. FF Jaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Lahti (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.