AC Oulu 1-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Mariehamn meet at Raatti Tekonurmi in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Oulu have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raatti Tekonurmi, AC Oulu have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Mariehamn (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for AC Oulu, 1.30 for Mariehamn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (AC Oulu 39% | Mariehamn 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AC Oulu 35% | Mariehamn 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 0.95 xG and Mariehamn 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.791 / defence 1.131 | Mariehamn attack 0.879 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.079. AC Oulu's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing AC Oulu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 AC Oulu games / 22 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 31% | Draw 31% | Mariehamn 38%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Mariehamn 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 40% | Mariehamn 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Raatti Tekonurmi • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 31% | Draw 31% | Mariehamn 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG AC Oulu 0.95 / Mariehamn 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.791 / def 1.131 | Mariehamn attack 0.879 / def 1.243 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Mariehamn xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kick off?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Raatti Tekonurmi.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
AC Oulu 1 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Raatti Tekonurmi.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn part of?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 31% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AC Oulu and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.79x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.88x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
31%
3.18
31%
3.27
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.02
1.07
Mariehamn xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.07 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 5W 4D 14L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn's form line: 7W 3D 13L from 23 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for AC Oulu against 1.04 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 3W 2D 6L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
AC Oulu are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.91 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 5W 4D 14L in their last 23 games (0.83 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 7W 3D 13L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Mariehamn away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.00 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
2
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 4, Mariehamn have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 36%, Mariehamn 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for AC Oulu and 46% for Mariehamn.
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 46% of games; Mariehamn in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 36% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of AC Oulu's recent games and 46% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Mariehamn tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mariehamn edge out AC Oulu 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat AC Oulu 1-2 at Raatti Tekonurmi, Relegation Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 0.95 xG and Mariehamn 1.07 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Mariehamn attack 0.88 / defence 1.24, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 31% | Draw 31% | Mariehamn 38%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 35%, Mariehamn 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 0.83 PPG, Mariehamn 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.