AC Oulu 2-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Mariehamn meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 18 June 2026 at 09:59 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Oulu have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raatin stadion, AC Oulu have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Mariehamn (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for AC Oulu, 1.50 for Mariehamn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for AC Oulu, 4 for Mariehamn and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Mariehamn winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 59% versus Mariehamn 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 57% | Mariehamn 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.58 xG and Mariehamn 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.977 / defence 0.815 | Mariehamn attack 0.625 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.114. Data: 33 AC Oulu games / 32 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 61% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 12%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 1.64 | Draw 3.70 | Mariehamn 8.33. The model has a clear lean to AC Oulu (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Mariehamn's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Oulu are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. This conflicts with form data: AC Oulu 50% | Mariehamn 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Jun 2026, 09:59 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 61% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 35% | xG AC Oulu 1.58 / Mariehamn 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.977 / def 0.815 | Mariehamn attack 0.625 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Mariehamn xG
35%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kick off?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kicked off at 09:59 on Thursday 18 June 2026 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
AC Oulu 2 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn part of?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 61% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 12% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both AC Oulu and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
Record (8 meetings): AC Oulu 3W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 4W.
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.98x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.62x) against AC Oulu's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.57.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.6%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
61%
1.63
27%
3.74
12%
8.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.15
0.57
Mariehamn xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
8.35
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
35%
2.88
2%
40.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for AC Oulu and 0.57 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 15W 10D 29L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn's form line: 15W 13D 26L from 54 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for AC Oulu against 1.07 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.30 PPG from 27 outings (10W 5D 12L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 6W 6D 15L from 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AC Oulu are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.13 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 15W 10D 29L in their last 54 games (1.02 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Mariehamn away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.30 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
2
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 4, Mariehamn have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 48%, Mariehamn 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AC Oulu) and 59% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 26% of games; Mariehamn in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of AC Oulu's games and 63% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of AC Oulu's matches and 59% of Mariehamn's.
Do AC Oulu and Mariehamn tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Oulu edge out Mariehamn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Mariehamn 2-1 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.58 xG and Mariehamn 0.57 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.98 / defence 0.81 against Mariehamn attack 0.62 / defence 1.10, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 61% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 12%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 57%, Mariehamn 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.02 PPG, Mariehamn 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.