Wolves 1-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolves at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolves vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Wolves welcome Burnley to Molineux Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wolves — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolves at Molineux Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Wolves are significantly better at Molineux Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Wolves have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wolves register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Burnley in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Wolves have won 0, Burnley 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Burnley winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Wolves in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Burnley in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolves 50% versus Burnley 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolves 48% | Burnley 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolves 1.95 xG and Burnley 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolves attack 0.965 / defence 0.997 | Burnley attack 0.746 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.423. Data: 52 Wolves games / 14 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolves 58% | Draw 22% | Burnley 20%. Fair-value odds: Wolves 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Burnley 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Wolves (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolves at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolves 70% | Burnley 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolves vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Molineux Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Dec 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolves 58% | Draw 22% | Burnley 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Wolves 1.95 / Burnley 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Wolves attack 0.965 / def 0.997 | Burnley attack 0.746 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Wolves (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Wolves xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Burnley xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolves vs Burnley kick off?
Wolves vs Burnley kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at Molineux Stadium.
What was the final score in Wolves vs Burnley?
Wolves 1 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Wolves vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Molineux Stadium.
What competition is Wolves vs Burnley part of?
Wolves vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Wolves vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Wolves a 58% chance of winning, Burnley a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolves vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wolves and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Wolves vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Burnley?
Record (2 meetings): Wolves 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Wolves and Burnley in?
Wolves (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Burnley (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolves's attack at 0.96x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Wolves's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.59
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Wolves xG
Total xG
3.00
1.06
Burnley xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
3%
34.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolves vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Wolves and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Wolves and 1.06 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolves vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolves's recent record stands at 15W 11D 26L from 52 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 13L across 52 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Burnley by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wolves heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolves have managed 11W 5D 9L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Wolves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Burnley's away record stands at 12W 8D 5L across 25 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wolves are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.69 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolves
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolves and Burnley in coming into this match?
Wolves have gone 15W 11D 26L in their last 52 games (1.08 PPG), while Burnley have gone 28W 11D 13L in their last 52 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolves at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolves at home: 1.52 PPG; Burnley away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Wolves or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolves have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Burnley in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolves and Burnley runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wolves's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wolves
3
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Wolves have won 1, Burnley have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wolves and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Burnley 1-1 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Wolves and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolves 40%, Burnley 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wolves) and 52% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Wolves keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Burnley in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolves home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolves play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Wolves's recent matches and 60% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolves vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wolves's recent games and 52% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Wolves edge out Burnley 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolves beat Burnley 1-0 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.95 xG and Burnley 1.06 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wolves fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Burnley landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against Burnley attack 0.75 / defence 1.19, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolves 58% | Draw 22% | Burnley 20%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 48%, Burnley 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolves's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Burnley's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Wolves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wolves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.