West Ham 1-0 Wolves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wolves at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Wolves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 27 as West Ham welcome Wolves to London Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
West Ham — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham at London Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolves stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolves's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolves — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for West Ham, 1 for Wolves and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Wolves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
West Ham in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at home): BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Wolves in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at away): BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 64% versus Wolves 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 56% | Wolves 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.09 xG and Wolves 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.075 / defence 1.213 | Wolves attack 0.781 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.343. Data: 26 West Ham games / 25 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 31% | Draw 28% | Wolves 40%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Wolves 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolves at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: West Ham 70% | Wolves 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 31% | Draw 28% | Wolves 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG West Ham 1.09 / Wolves 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.075 / def 1.213 | Wolves attack 0.781 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Wolves (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Wolves xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Wolves kick off?
West Ham vs Wolves kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Wolves?
West Ham 1 - 0 Wolves.
Where is West Ham vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Wolves part of?
West Ham vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 31% chance of winning, Wolves a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both West Ham and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Wolves?
Record (1 meetings): West Ham 0W | Draws 0 | Wolves 1W.
What form are West Ham and Wolves in?
West Ham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Wolves (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates West Ham's attack at 1.07x the league average against Wolves's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolves's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
31%
3.18
28%
3.55
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.36
1.27
Wolves xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are West Ham and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for West Ham and 1.27 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Ham come into this having played 25 games, going 11W 6D 8L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (12W 4D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.56 PPG, Wolves on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
West Ham's home form reads 6W 3D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 1.77 points per game from 13 outings (7W 2D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 0.96 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wolves in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Wolves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Wolves in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 11W 6D 8L in their last 25 games (1.56 PPG), while Wolves have gone 12W 4D 9L in their last 25 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Wolves away?
Wolves's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.62 PPG; Wolves away: 1.77 PPG.
Have West Ham or Wolves been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Wolves in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2026, when West Ham won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Ham's record when hosting Wolves specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
West Ham
0
Draws
4
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Wolves?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 6, Wolves have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when West Ham 4-0 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Wolves?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 77%, Wolves 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (West Ham) and 23% (Wolves).
On the defensive side: Wolves in 46%; Wolves in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Wolves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 77% of West Ham's recent matches and 31% of Wolves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Ham vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of West Ham's recent games and 23% of Wolves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Wolves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Wolves 1-0 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.09 xG and Wolves 1.27 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wolves landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.07 / defence 1.21 against Wolves attack 0.78 / defence 0.93, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 31% | Draw 28% | Wolves 40%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual West Ham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 56%, Wolves 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolves's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.56 PPG, Wolves 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.