West Ham 1-0 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Tottenham travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, West Ham have gone 4W 2D 2L from 8 outings — a 1.75 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.88 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Ham have posted 1W 1D 2L at London Stadium — 1.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.75 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at London Stadium this season.
Tottenham — All Games: 5W 0D 3L from 8 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.88 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tottenham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: West Ham 1.75 PPG, Tottenham 1.88 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
West Ham trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Tottenham trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 75% versus Tottenham 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (West Ham 75% | Tottenham 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.79 xG and Tottenham 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.084 / defence 1.295 | Tottenham attack 0.848 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.327. Tottenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing West Ham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 West Ham games / 8 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 46% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 32%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Tottenham 3.12. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates West Ham as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Ham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 100% | Tottenham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 46% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG West Ham 1.79 / Tottenham 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.084 / def 1.295 | Tottenham attack 0.848 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: West Ham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Tottenham xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Tottenham kick off?
West Ham vs Tottenham kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Tottenham?
West Ham 1 - 0 Tottenham.
Where is West Ham vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Tottenham part of?
West Ham vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 46% chance of winning, Tottenham a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both West Ham and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Tottenham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Ham and Tottenham in?
West Ham (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Tottenham (all comps): 5W-0D-3L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Ham's attack rating (1.08) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
46%
2.20
23%
4.36
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.24
1.46
Tottenham xG
2.20
46%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
5%
18.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are West Ham and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for West Ham and 1.46 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 4W 2D 2L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tottenham's form line: 5W 0D 3L from 8 games, 1.88 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.75 PPG, Tottenham on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 1.75 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Tottenham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.12 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Tottenham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Tottenham in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 5W 0D 3L in their last 8 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Tottenham away?
Tottenham's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.00 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.50 PPG.
Have West Ham or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Tottenham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Tottenham won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Ham's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
West Ham
3
Draws
4
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 3, Tottenham have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Tottenham 1-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — West Ham at 100%, Tottenham at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for West Ham and 75% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Tottenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of West Ham's games and 50% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of West Ham's matches and 75% of Tottenham's.
Prediction vindicated as West Ham edge out Tottenham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Tottenham 1-0 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.79 xG and Tottenham 1.46 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tottenham landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.08 / defence 1.29 against Tottenham attack 0.85 / defence 1.44, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 46% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 32%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 75%, Tottenham 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Tottenham's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.75 PPG, Tottenham 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.