Tottenham 3-1 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tottenham vs Leicester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Leicester travel to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to take on Tottenham. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Tottenham have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Tottenham's home record at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Leicester — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Leicester away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tottenham 1.90 PPG, Leicester 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Tottenham have won 1, Leicester 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2022, ended 3–2 with Tottenham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Tottenham trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Leicester trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 38% versus Leicester 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 59% | Leicester 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 2.07 xG and Leicester 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.389 / defence 1.106 | Leicester attack 0.820 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.322. Tottenham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Leicester bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Tottenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Tottenham games / 32 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 58% | Draw 21% | Leicester 22%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Leicester 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Tottenham (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 40% | Leicester 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Leicester | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 58% | Draw 21% | Leicester 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Tottenham 2.07 / Leicester 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.389 / def 1.106 | Leicester attack 0.820 / def 1.378 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Leicester xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Leicester kick off?
Tottenham vs Leicester kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Leicester?
Tottenham 3 - 1 Leicester.
Where is Tottenham vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Leicester part of?
Tottenham vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 58% chance of winning, Leicester a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Tottenham and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Leicester?
Record (1 meetings): Tottenham 1W | Draws 0 | Leicester 0W.
What form are Tottenham and Leicester in?
Tottenham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Leicester (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tottenham's attack rating (1.39) and Leicester's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
58%
1.74
21%
4.77
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Tottenham xG
Total xG
3.27
1.20
Leicester xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
3%
36.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.20 for Leicester, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Leicester?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tottenham's recent record stands at 17W 4D 11L from 32 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Leicester, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 12L across 32 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tottenham by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Leicester heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tottenham have managed 9W 1D 5L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Leicester's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tottenham are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.47 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester in 66%.
Defensively: Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Current Season
Leicester
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Leicester in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 17W 4D 11L in their last 32 games (1.72 PPG), while Leicester have gone 11W 9D 12L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Leicester away?
Tottenham's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 1.87 PPG; Leicester away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Leicester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Leicester in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Tottenham won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Leicester specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Tottenham
1
Draws
2
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Leicester?
From 6 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 3, Leicester have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Tottenham 1-2 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Leicester?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 40%, Leicester 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Tottenham and 60% for Leicester. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tottenham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Tottenham have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Leicester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Tottenham's games and 80% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tottenham vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Tottenham's matches and 60% of Leicester's.
Tottenham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Leicester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Leicester 3-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 2.07 xG and Leicester 1.20 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Tottenham beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.39 / defence 1.11 against Leicester attack 0.82 / defence 1.38, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 58% | Draw 21% | Leicester 22%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 59%, Leicester 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Leicester's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Leicester (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.